EUR/USD. Forecast for September 5, 2012

Macroeconomic data on Tuesday was not as optimistic as many expected. Number of unemployed in Spain increased by 38.2K while the US PMI fixed at the level of 49.6 against forecasted 50.1. It was 48.8 in July. The American stock market (S&P500) lost 0.12%, the European Stoxx600 fell 1.13%.
Today at 12:30 (GMT +3) the Eurozone will disclose its PMI services index for August. As the analysts expect that the reading will not change and make up 47.5. At 13:00 (GMT +3) we are waiting for retail sales for July. The indicator is supposed to drop 0.2% against 0.1% growth in June.
Taking into account weaker statistics, PMI services index may also be less than anticipated.
Technically, the correction is possible towards coincident trend lines on intraday and 4H time frames. Overcoming of 1.2572 will give a way towards 1.2619.



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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-28

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Gold tested yesterday the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel, but traders took some profits due to bad news at the end of the week with the related speech of the President of the Federal Reserve. After that it declined yesterday and approached the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1,649 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will release a large potential and will enable to reach the lower limit of its channel at 1,580.
Technical indicators provide sell signal and evolve in overbuy zone supporting the hypothesis of a decline. Until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
As gold tests its intermediate support, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we suggest a buy on the level of 1,649 with the 1st objective at 1,660 and then at 1,665. A breakthrough of 1,646 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” which means selling of the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1,649 with the 1st objective at 1,638 and then at 1,635. A breakthrough of 1,652 will invalidate this scenario.
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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-24

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Gold broke the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel leading to acceleration to the upper limit of its channel at 1,674 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will allow it to release a large potential and initiate a more violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signals and evolve in overbuy zone supporting the hypothesis of a decline. Until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
As gold tests the upper limit of its channel, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell at the level of 1,674 with the 1st objective at 1,665 and then at 1,660. A breakthrough of 1,677 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop”. We recommend to buy the gold as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,674 with the 1st objective at 1,685 and then at 1,688. A breakthrough of 1,671 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

GBP/USD Strong Support 1.5784 - For August 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The British pound had a bullish session yesterday, exceeding strong resistance of 1.5766 and hitting above the 200 day moving average (blue). This indicates a good bullish momentum within the pair, we note that the pair is losing strength and is possible that downward correction there expects the former resistance, but now serves as support at the level of 1.5784 ( fractal daily), increasing the likelihood of a strong support.
Therefore, we recommend buying 1.5784 with targets at 1.5950. Fractal next day.



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If you need a personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com
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Gerardo Porras is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-22

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As we expected yesterday, the spot rate broke the upper limit of its short term bearish channel at 98.40 and reached the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 99.20 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will release good potential and will initiate a more violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signal and approach overbuy zone supporting a decline. Until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Furthermore, the upper band strengthens the upper limit of its channel supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure
As the spot rate tests its resistance, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell on the level of 99.20 with the 1st objective at 98.60 and then at 98.40. A breakthrough 99.40 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop”. We recommend to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 99.20 with the 1st objective at 99.80 and then at 100.00. A breakthrough 98.90 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

AUD/CAD Wave Analysis for August 21,2012

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AUD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last few weeks the AUD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move, developing corrective (A) wave (coloured green) of the bigger (2) wave (coloured orange). Last Friday the AUD/USD pair finished (A) wave, and we could observe the price higher this week when developing the (B) wave starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave B retraces 61.8% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0593-1.0292), with Take Profit 1 at 1.0445(50% of wave A), and Take Profit 2 at 1.0481 (61.8% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use the end of the A wave at 1.0292 level as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0271 (S2) 1.0290 (S1) 1.0301 (PP) 1.0319 (R1) 1.0338 (R2) 1.0349 (R3) 1.0367
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0370 with Stop Loss 1.0292, Take Profit 1 1.0445 and Take Profit 2 1.0481 are recommended.
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GBP/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for August 20 - 24, 2012

Weekly Technical Levels:

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Tip (s):

•R3 and S3 are regarded as clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through.
•Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines.
•Within a strong trend the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and will continue the movement.
•In case of the breaking news release which may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Observation (s):

• If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
• Fibonacci retracement uses to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance, and playing according to in this kind of period.
• Fibonacci in a range trader (it is looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period you'll go sure for losing your profit.
• Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
• Usually the market has a high volatile, if the last day had a huge volatility.

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.
Mourad El Keddani is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.