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GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-08-16

The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1.6420 and seems to start a  decline. However a break of these levels would initiate a bullish trend more violent.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.6420 with a 1st objective of 1.6540, then 1.6580. A break in 1.6390 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/36022/?x=OUE 

www.tradebankerstyle.com    

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-08-15

Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel  in 1748 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a new trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1748 with a 1st objective of 1759, then 1764. A break in 1746 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35904/?x=OUE   

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 12, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within subwave 4 (from 1.09928) of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. These four waves are part of wave A of larger degree from 1.1079 (colored royal blue in the chart). Within wave 4 there are three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0111.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1063-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0414-1.0111.
Resistances:
- 1.0414 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0496 = .50 retracement
- 1.0597 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0629 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements 0.9928-1.0414, and expansions off 1.0414-1.0111-1.0358.
Supports:
- 1.0171 = COP
- 1.0114 = .618 ret
- 1.0055 = OP
- 0.9928 = 100% ret
- 0.9868 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (30-60 pips below the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35766/?x=OUE  

www.tradebankerstyle.com   

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-08-12

Gold is approaching the upper limit of its short-term bearish channel in 1774 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would initiate a new trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1774 with a 1st objective of 1787, then 1794. A break in 1772 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35774/?x=OUE  

www.tradebankerstyle.com    

Technical analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 11, 2011

4-hour timeframe

Overview:
Forex market analysis for August 11 shows that at the moment downtrend still remains and there are frequent rollbacks and corrections. The downtrend is moving to side movement. It is not recommended to trade this pair now. The buy signal is confirmed and weak, since the Chinkou Span fixated over the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 1.4660– the second support level. Upside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.4240), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show side movement, which prevents us from bullish trading. Yet due to high volatility and frequent corrections trading is not recommended in general.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the market stabilizes. Trading is dangerous now as losses are rather likely to occur.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35710/?x=OUE   

www.tradebankerstyle.com

JPY-Crosses: Preparing for a Yen Intervention

Now that the USD/JPY is trading below its exchange rate prior to the August 4 Ministry of Finance intervention, as investors continue to favor the Yen as a safe haven amid the deepening European sovereign debt crisis, another intervention is likely on the horizon in order to combat haven flows.

Considering not only recent commentary by Japanese government officials stating that they are “watching the currency markets” carefully, but also the fact that yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to leave rates low for an extended period, until “mid-2013,” further pressure is likely on the USD/JPY over the medium-term, essentially forcing one of the two Japanese governmental institutions to step in order to stem the Yen’s rally across the major currencies. It should be noted that Yen-crosses could depreciate further before an intervention, as the USD/JPY has been intervened at decreasing exchange rates upon each occurrence.

Please note that the trade recommendations contained here within are advised only under the pretext of an intervention to weaken the Yen, as broader macroeconomic trends are dictating further market uncertainty and thus capital flows into the safe haven currencies in the near-term, and any appreciation of currencies against the Yen, in the author’s opinion, are likely to be short-lived.

USD/JPY Hourly: August 2 to August 10

The above chart, an updated hourly snapshot of the USD/JPY, details the finer aspects of the intervention move by the Ministry of Finance. The Fibonacci retracements, from the low ahead of the Asian session open at 76.919, to the post-intervention high at 80.230, show that over 100.0 percent of the move following the currency manipulation has been retraced. The USD/JPY, despite some fluctuations on very short timeframes, has depreciated nearly linearly since peaking at 80.230, falling as low as 76.344, just above the all-time low set on August 1, at 76.283. In light of the recent price action, the suggested strategy on how to position trades on a possible intervention has been update, now that the USD/JPY has since retraced the entire intervention rally.

Suggested Strategy

• Long: Place an entry at 77.700 [76.4 Fibo]
• Stop: Set the stop to 76.919 [100.0 Fibo, 78-pip risk]
• Target 1 (Risk/Reward Ratio): 78.575 [38.2 Fibo] (86/78, 1.12)
• Target 2: 79.449 [23.6 Fibo] (175/78, 2.24)
• Target 3: 80.230 [0.00 Fibo] (253/78, 3.24)
• Timeframe: 12-hours following intervention
• AUD/JPY Hourly: August 2 to August 10
  
• The above chart details the AUD/JPY moves over the past week following the intervention. The pair easily retraced the Ministry’s manipulation, trading back to the pre-intervention level within just over 12-hours. The AUD/JPY should be watched carefully in light of an intervention, as it represents the most significant carry trade among the major currencies currently, and thus presents the greatest opportunity to the upside should market conditions allow for further appreciation. On the other hand, diminished rate hike expectations have weighed on the Australian Dollar in August, as it is the worst performing currency over said timeframe, and therefore gains are likely limited.
  Suggested Strategy
  • Long: Place an entry at 79.811 [38.2 Fibo]
  • Stop: Set the stop to 79.311 [50-pip risk]
  • Target 1 (Risk/Reward Ratio): 80.830 [50.0 Fibo] (102/50, 2.04)
  • Target 2: 81.848 [61.8 Fibo] (204/50, 4.08)
  • Timeframe: 12-hours following intervention
  • GBP/JPY Hourly: August 2 to August 10
    
  • An interesting currency to trade against the Yen, in my opinion, is the GBP/JPY. The pair had one of the more exaggerated responses to the intervention on August 4, rallying over 400-pips on the move – the AUD/JPY and USD/JPY only rallied approximately 300-pips each. As such, considering that the Sterling has been the strongest non-safe haven currency today, it has momentum in its favor, certainly something that can be exploited for now should an intervention occur.
    Suggested Strategy
    • Long: Place an entry at 125.071 [23.6 Fibo]
    • Stop: Set the stop to 124.571 [50-pip risk]
    • Target 1 (Risk/Reward Ratio): 126.170 [38.2 Fibo] (110/50, 2.20)
    • Target 2: 127.058 [23.6 Fibo] (199/50, 3.98)
    • Target 3: 127.946 [0.00 Fibo] (288/50, 5.76)
    • Timeframe: 12-hours following intervention
  • www.tradebankerstyle.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 10, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within subwave 4 (from 1.09928) of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. These four waves are part of wave A of larger degree from 1.1079 (colored royal blue in the chart). Within wave 4 there are three subwaves (colored yellow in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0064.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1063-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0255-1.0064.
Resistances:
- 1.0391 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0496 = .50 retracement
- 1.0593 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0629 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9928 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (50-80 pips below the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35582?x=OUE

www.tradebankerstyle.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 9, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed the wave from 135.11 to 124.16 and is now moving in a corrective wave against this movement. Current wave A of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) now has A and B subwaves, with subwave B still developing from 130.81 (colored magenta in the chart). Within wave B there are three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 128.87.
The targets below the current price level are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-127.38-128.87, 128.87-126.45-127.30.
Supports:
- 125.44 = objective point (OP), already hit (!)
- 124.88 = OP
- 123.38 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.32 = XOP
- 120.96 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 119.89 = SXOP
If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 139.94-124.16, 135.11-124.16, and 130.81-125.36.
Resistances:
- 127.44 = .382 retracement
- 128.09 = .50 ret
- 128.73 = .618 ret
- 130.93 = .618 ret
- 132.05 = .50 ret
- 133.91 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (40-60 pips above the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35476/?x=OUE 

www.tradebankerstyle.com  

EUR/USD Fundamental situation review August 9, 2011

Despite the intervention of the European Central Bank on Monday to buy the bonds, including Italy, Spain, equaling about 4.5 billions according to some economic reports.
Now the market is concerned more about the fears of Europe's crisis rather than the United States news.
The main event which controls the market since the weekly opening and so far  was the fear about the severe debt crisis in the region of Europe also the rumors about the possibility of reducing the credit rating of Britain and France.
This applied pressure on the euro and and managed to pull the prices from the High"1.4420" to Yesterday's low "1.4129 "
This remains in place until the pressure is now
On the other hand, there's an important event today which is the decision of U.S. interest  which is expected not to be changed, and the eyes are turned to the statement accompanying the decision by the U.S. Federal and any change in tone during talking or any reference to the QE III?
Generally the majority of the public analysts exclude having any updates about it today.
Scenarios were limited to one of these 3 ones:
First
Tone is worried but without reference to quantitative easing, If this happens, it is expected for the USD to rise against all currencies except Franc and Yen.
II
Tone is worried with reference to the quantitative easing and this may cause decline of USD against other currencies.
III
Optimistic tone, without any indication of the quantitative easing, although this is ruled out a little.
But that will cause the dollar to rise very strongly.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35480/?x=OUE  

www.tradebankerstyle.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 8, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed the wave from 135.11 to 124.16 and is now moving in a corrective wave against this movement. Current wave A of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) now has A and B subwaves, with subwave B still developing from 130.81 (colored magenta in the chart).
The targets below the current price level are Fibonacci retracements of 124.16-130.81, and 125.25-130.81, and expansions off 130.81-127.38-128.87.
Supports:
- 127.49-37 = confluence area of .50 and .618 retracements
- 126.75-70 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 ret
- 125.44 = objective point (OP)
- 123.32 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 139.94-124.16, 135.11-124.16, and expansions off 124.16-130.81-127.38.
Resistances:
- 130.93 = .618 ret
- 131.49 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.05 = .50 ret
- 133.91 = .618 ret
- 134.03 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-35 pips below the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35346/?x=OUE 

www.tradebankerstyle.com    

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 5, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within wave 5 (from 1.0784) of medium term downtrend - colored red in the chart. Within this wave there are four subwaves with subwave 4 from 1.0424 still developing - colored yellow in the chart.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0784-1.0424.
Resistances:
- 1.0562 = .382 retracement
- 1.0604 = .50 ret
- 1.0646 = .618 ret
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.1063-1.0679-1.0784.
Supports:
- 1.0400 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0163 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

http://news.instaforex.com/analytics/rss/x=OUE

www.tradebankerstyle.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 5, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed the wave from 135.11 to 124.16 and is now moving in a corrective wave against this movement. Current wave A of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) now has A and B subwaves, with subwave B still developing from 130.81 (colored magenta in the chart).
The targets below the current price level are Fibonacci retracements of 124.16-130.81, and 125.25-130.81.
Supports:
- 127.49-37 = confluence area of .50 and .618 retracements
- 126.70 = .618 ret
If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 139.94-124.16, 135.11-124.16, and expansions off 124.16-130.81-127.51.
Resistances:
- 130.93 = .618 ret
- 131.62 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.05 = .50 ret
- 133.91 = .618 ret
- 134.16 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (60-90 pips below the current prices).

http://news.instaforex.com/analytics/rss/x=OUE

www.tradebankerstyle.com

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis August 5, 2011

Bearish engulfing daily candlestick enhances the previously mentioned DAILY DOUBLE TOP pattern.
Price is still finding support at 1.6200 1.6250, it needs to be broken to open the way for the bears.
This support prevents the pair from declining and visiting 1.6000-1.6040.

Multiple tops on the 4H chart, the neck-line is found at 1.6230 - 1.6250.
4H closure below the neckline confirms the pattern targeting 1.6145, 1.6076 then 1.6025.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company

http://news.instaforex.com/analytics/rss/x=OUE

www.tradebankerstyle.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 4, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed the wave from 135.11 to 124.16 and is now moving in a corrective wave against this movement. Current wave A of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) now has A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 125.29 (colored red in the chart).
The immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 139.94-124.16, 135.11-124.16, and expansions off 124.16-126.96-125.29.
Resistances:
- 129.63-82 = confluence area of .50 retracement and expanded objective point (XOP), already reached (!)
- 130.19 = .382 ret
- 130.93 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 125.29 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (120-130 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (170-200 pips below the current prices).
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

http://news.instaforex.com/analytics/rss/x=OUE

www.tradebankerstyle.com

USD/JPY Intraday Technical analysis 2011-08-03

The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 77.80 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would release significant potential and initiate a new trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 77.80 with a 1st objective of 78.50, then 78.80. A break in 77.60 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35002/?x=OUE  

www.tradebankerstyle.com   

EUR/GBP Supply & Demand Analysis August 2, 2011

We have a broken bullish channel successfully retested.
Area 0.8850-0.8880 provided a good supply zone which prevented further upside movement.
Now the pair is testing the demand zone 0.8720 - 0.8700, with its break it will target 0.8610 as the next obvious demand area.
If the current demand area limited the decline, this would bring the pair back to the supply area 0.8850-0.8880.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/34938/?x=OUE   

EUR/USD market manipulations analysis for August 1, 2011

Dollar definitely lost demand among investors after the release of US reports on Friday. At the moment the euro is correcting above the Friday resistance levels. Such stagnation is likely to continue today before the release of any relevant news. Upside dynamics is expected from 1.4360 to 1.4470.
Trading recommendations:
- short-term buy position from 1.4365

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/34818/?x=OUE 

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GOLD Technical Correction, July 29, 2011 (Daily Strategy)

GOLD
The price of gold is once again at an all time high after it succeeded in jumping over the significant resistance level of 1600 dollars at the beginning of the week. the negative deviation has been created in the MACD indicator which suggests that a steep fall in the price of gold can be expected in the immediate future.
A daily closure, once again beneath the resistance and test level of 1600, will confirm the potential trend reversal and the move to a wave of price drops, Just a short correction can be expected to lower the price of gold in the direction of the support level at 1550 dollars.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/34708/?x=OUE  

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis July 28, 2011

Yesterday, We has bearish Daily closure Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern coming at the resistance area 1.4520-1.4577.
This resistance area is 61.8% Fibonatcci Level and previous top.
Now we have a support area 1.4320- 1.4300 important for the bulls to defend and need not to have daily closure below it.
Break of this support opens the way for the pair to visit 1.4200-1.4170.
Break of 1.4570 opens the way to visit the next bullish target at 1.4700.

Area 1.4330-14300 rejected further decline of the currency pair.
This area is a previous congestion zone, uptrend line ( lower limit of a bullish channel ).
So this area is important to defend in order to keep the bullish view for the pair, otherwise the pair will have a clear way down to 1.4230 then 1.4170.
So it's a good area to buy the pair at with TP at 1.4450 then 1.4570.
SL should be 4H closure outside the bullish channel marked above.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/34590/?x=OUE   

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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for July 25, 2011

4-hour timeframe

Overview:
Forex market analysis for July 25 shows that at the moment the currency is still observing a buy signal, the signal is strong, therefore we should consider long positions. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 1.4525 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second resistance level at 1.4692. Upside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (1.4250), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is descending, which indicates current correction movement, this filter does not allow us to trade up now, but we can resume trading after the MACD reverses up.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with target at 1.4525 and further to 1.4692. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.4250 and stretched down as the Kijun-sen declines. It is recommended to open long positions after the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
 The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/34232/?x=OUE  

EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-07-19

The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1.4130 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a new trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.4130 with a 1st objective of 1.4250, then 1.4280. A break in 1.4100 would invalidate this scenario.

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The market manipulations analysis of the AUD/USD by Alexey Portnov for July 18, 2011

The AUD has reached the above mentioned levels, however we did not see the expected growth. At the moment the pair is correcting above the 1.0585 level. A double bottom was formed; therefore we should not eliminate the possibility of Friday’s supply levels to be tested. In case of a decline we should expect the 1.0585 level to be passed.
Trading recommendations:
-sell from the supply levels

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EUR/CHF Bullish Above 116,00 July 14, 2011 (Daily Strategy)

EUR/CHF
After a prolonged downward sequence, the euro-franc pair was stabilized around the bottom of 1.1525 (Weekly Support) entered into a stalemate with the price range of about 850 points. The sharp downward sequence of the last ten days led the pair to the low of the range of stagnation around the 1.1490 levels, resulting in the last weekly support.
Therefore, according fibonacci indicator, Euro-Swiss franc could resume its upward sequence it had on the previous day, only if the price remains above weekly support around the 1.1600 , for a long position. With A goal of take profit around the 1.2000 level.


http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/33448?x=OUE

GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-07-13

The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1.6030 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would allow it to reach the upper limit of its long-term bearish channel to 1.6260.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.6030 with a 1st objective of 1.6150, then 1.6180. A break in 1.6000 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/33290/?x=OUE  

EUR/USD Daily Outlook for July 12nd / 2011 2011-07-12

SHORT  DESCRIPTION :

If today's EUR/USD can close below the 1.3925 level then the probability to catch up to their next target at 1.3850 level as the first target and 1.3750 as the second target can be realized within three days. However, If within 3 days this pair cannot hit the 1.3750 level, this will be considered as the sign that the Bearish Situation for the EUR/USD will be held.


http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/33226/?x=OUE  

EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 11 - 15/ July, 2011 2011-07-11

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4857
Weekly - R2 = 1.4718
Weekly - R1 = 1.4490
Weekly Pivot = 1.4351
Weekly - S1 = 1.4123
Weekly - S2 = 1.3984
Weekly - S3 = 1.3756

____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5396
Monthly - R2 = 1.5046
Monthly - R1 = 1.4771
Monthly Pivot = 1.4421
Monthly - S1 = 1.4146
Monthly - S2 = 1.3796
Monthly - S3 = 1.3521

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/33124/?x=OUE  

USD/CAD Technical Analysis & Bearish View - July 8, 2011

The USD/CAD currency pair is in a long-term down trend.
The period extending from May - End of June 2011 the pair passed in a period of retracement.
This retracement was in the form of bullish channels.
Recently the pair has broken both illustrated bullish channels Also breaking the last 6 weeks' lows.

The lower limit of the broken channel was a good SELL entry now the pair is facing support at 0.9580.
We can resume our short positions either from 0.9640 or after 4H closure below 0.9580.
TP should be 0.9580, 0.9520 then 0.9460.
SL should be placed above 0.9777.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/32932/?x=OUE  

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for July 7, 2011

GBP/JPY has finished corrective subwave B from 128.19 to 130.82 (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave C of long term downtrend (from 132.30) - this one is light green in the chart. Now we have potential impulse wave C developing from 130.82. Within this wave there are A and B subwaves - colored orange red.
Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 128.40-130.82, and expansions off 139.93-130.26-135.11, 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-128.19-130.82, 130.82-128.95-129.63.
Supports:
- 128.47 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 128.28 = COP
- 127.76 = objective point (OP)
- 126.93 = OP
- 126.71 = OP
- 126.60 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.82-128.95.
Resistances:
- 129.66 = .382 retracement
- 129.88 = .50 ret
- 130.11 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (20-25 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (55-70 pips above the current prices).
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/32830/?x=OUE  

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-07-06

Gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium-term bullish channel in 1517 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would allow it to reach the upper limit of the channel to 1558.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1517 with a 1st objective of 1527, then 1530. A break in 1515 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/32704/?x=OUE   

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-06-30

Gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium-term bullish channel in 1520 suggesting a decline . However a break of these levels would allow it to reach the upper limit of the channel to 1560.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1520 with a 1st objective of 1530, then 1534. A break in 1518 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/32217?x=OUE

EUR/JPY Possible Bullish Opportunity - June 29, 2011

17 March candlestick marked in the chart came as a very nice hummer indicating strong bullish rejection of support level 106.80 .
Since beginning of May 2011 price has been consolidating between 38.2% - 61.8% Fibonatcci levels .
Watching 61.8% Fibonatcci level , we notice the nice bullish reaction of the daily candlesticks as Full Body bullish candlesticks .

On 4H timeframe we had a broken downtrend line successfully retested as marked in the chart .
Then we had a successful break of the resistance level 115.70 .
Also we notice the uptrend line on the MACD indicator marked in the chart .
Based on the previous Analysis :
The view for the pair is bullish
Best BUY area is the retest of the broken resistance level 115.70 now acting as support .
TP for long positions is 116.50 , 117.00 .
SL should be 4H closure below 114.90 .


http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/32069?x=OUE  

GBP/USD candlestick analysis for June 24, 2011

Earlier in a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has formed Morning Doji Star candlestick combination indicating bullish signal.
This candlestick combination was formed after the pair failed to break the support level 1.5932 which means that the bears could not solidify here. Further the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound to the upside took place.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect growth to the resistance level 1.6262 where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located. If the pair fixates above 1.6262, this will target it to 1.6472.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly below 1.5932 as a break of this support level will allow the pair to reach 1.5750.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/31729/?x=OUE    

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EUR/JPY Two possible scenarios and trade opportunity June 9, 2011

EUR/JPY currency pair has been consolidating inside bullish channel since 23 May .
As we follow the price action towards the upper limit of red channel we see strong rejection of the level 117.70 which has proved itself as a strong resistance level till now .
Also we notice that the price started to make lower lows and lower highs indicating weakness of the upside direction .
Based on the previous analysis :
4H candlestick closure below the lower limit of the channel (BLUE ONE) gives the signal to go SHORT with target at 115.05
4h candlestick closure above the upper limit of the channel ( RED ONE ) gives the signal to go LONG which isn't recommended as we see .
SL for both positions is the achievement of the opposite one .


http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/30549/?x=OUE  

CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook June 08, 2011 (Daily Strategy)

CRUDE OIL
The oil price is consolidating between the levels of 97.90 to 103.20, so it has not yet defined exactly if it continued its downtrend in the short term, or retake its upward trend long term. The first position can by buy now  (98,20) and strengthened later by an additional position in the event that the price of oil breaks through the nearby resistance rate at 100.60 dollars or close above the weekly pivot line.
The price of oil is expected to easily rise above the resistance level of 105,90 dollars and perhaps go even higher than that.



 

British pound forecast in terms of market profile for Tuesday, June 7, 2011

On Monday, June 6, the market profile on the British pound is referred to the trend day.
During the trading day the British pound slid down against the US dollar and garnered the support only after it reached the POC area of June 3 – 1.6339.
By the results of the day the fair price zones are positioned within VAL – 1.6383 and VAH – 1.6459. The POC control point was formed at 1.6426.
Forecast for today:
At the early Asian session the British pound slides down against the US dollar.
In case the downfall continues the first support level will be Ibx.3 – 1.6327 from which it may continue declining to POC of May 26 – 1.6310 and then to 1.6290 – VAH of May 25, 2011.
 
1.6382 – VAL , 1.6394 – VAL 1 , 1.6408 – VAL 27 .
«» 1.6420 – POC 27 , POC .
. , Forex.

– POC (Point of Control) – , .
– VAL – , , POC.
– VAH - , , POC.
– IBx1.5 (Initial balance) – , ( , , )
– IBx2 – , ( , , ).
– Ibx3 – , ( , , ).
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/30253/?x=OUE  

The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for May 24, 2011

Overview:
The euro is still observing the sell signal without a target level, formed yesterday, the MACD is also demonstrating a slight correction. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the downside movement is 1.4021 – the first support level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second support level at 1.3885. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.4160), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is ascending, thus indicating current correction movement, if it reverses down this will denote the end of the correction movement.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 1.4021 and further to 1.3885. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.4160 and stretched as the Kijun-sen declines. Short positions should only be opened after the MACD reverses down.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
 The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
 http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/29261/?x=OUE 
 

USD/CHF wave analysis for May 23, 2011

Despite differently directed Friday’s trading, the USD/CHF currency pair managed to end forming the estimated b wave of the current correction structure and observe the 50,0% correction target level after a reverse. At the same time, the decline to 0.8750 at the moment looks like the beginning of the wave of this correction. If so, the indicated downside movement can develop in the direction of the next possible target located near the 87 figure level. 


http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/29165/?x=OUE 

EUR/USD Technical Support and Resistance Level For May 20, 2011

TODAY's  TECHNICAL  LEVELS :

Breakout BUY Level : 1.4394.
Strong Resistance : 1.4386.
Original Resistance : 1.4372.
Inner Sell Area : 1.4358.
Target Inner Area : 1.4324.
Inner Buy Area : 1.4290.
Original Support : 1.4276.
Strong Support : 1.4262.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.4253.

SHORT  DESCRIPTION :

Today the EUR/USD is to find Support and Resistance between 1.4276 and 1.4372 and it has a strong Support at 1.4262 and a strong Resistance at 1.4386; if today the EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.4253, it will be a sign for Short trading for today; on the other hand, if the pair can break out and close above 1.4394, it will be the sign for LONG trading for today. Another option for the advanced trader can be trading between the Inner Buy Level at the 1.4290 for LONG trading and the Inner Sell Level at the 1.4358 for the SHORT trading, and all of them with the target at the 1.4324 level.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/29019/?x=OUE

EUR/USD wave analysis for May 19, 2011

During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD could not define further direction. At the same time, the price is still within the wave structure that at the moment can be characterized as another series of abc correction waves. Thus, current situation allows both resumption of downside movement in the range of the future 5th wave in the estimated 3rd (or C), and possible development of a new uptrend section.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28967/?x=OUE 
 

USD/JPY wave analysis for May 19, 2011

Yesterday during the Asian session the USD/JPY did not manage to pass the 81 figure level and advanced to 81.70 by the end of the day. At the same time, the current situation is developing, and as a result the price might form the 1st wave of the future new uptrend section. At the same time, current MACD divergence still allows a new stage of declining in the direction of the lows reached earlier.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28973/?x=OUE 
 

USD Rallies On FOMC Minutes, Dollar Index To Maintain Trend

The U.S. dollar pared the overnight decline, with the Dow Jones-FXCM index bouncing back from a low of 9604.27, and the rebound may gather pace going into the end of the week as the Federal Reserve changes its tone for monetary policy. The index is 0.21% higher on the day after moving 94% of its average true range, and the gauge looks poised to test 9750.00 over the coming days as it continues to trade within an upward trending channel. However, as the relative strengthen index approaches oversold territory, there is likely to be a small pull back before we see the dollar index continue to retrace the decline from the previous month.

The majority of the FOMC said they favored raising the benchmark interest rate before unwinding its asset purchases, with the group debatinga possible exit strategy at the policy meeting earlier this month. However, the Fed went onto say that the recent discussion should not be interpreted as an imminent tightening in monetary policy as the committee continues to see a “moderate” recovery in the world’s largest economy. The minutes revealed that QE3 remains off the table unless there’s a marked shift in the economic outlook, and noted that the first step to normalizing monetary policy would be to cease MBS reinvestment. In terms of growth and inflation, the central bank argued that the rise in price growth is likely to be transitory, while policy makers expect unemployment to gradually decline given the ongoing weakness within the private sector. The comments suggest that the FOMC will continue to support the real economy as QE2 expires in June, and the committee may preserve a wait-and-see approach in the third-quarter to encourage a sustainable recovery.

All four components weakened on Wednesday, led by a 0.65% decline in the British Pound, and the sterling may continue to underperform against its major counterparts as the Bank of England maintains a cautious outlook for the U.K. In light of the recent developments, the GBP/USD certainly remains at risk of facing additional headwinds over the near-term, and the exchange rate looks poised to fall back towards former resistance around 1.6000 as it searches for support. However, as price growth in Britain accelerates, the heightening risk for inflation could fuel bets for a rate hike later this year, and interest rate expectations should help to prop up the sterling as market participants weigh the prospects for future policy. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors see borrowing costs in Britain increasing by nearly 50bp over the next 12-months, and interest rate expectations may gather pace in the second-half of the year should the BoE toughen its stance against inflation.

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