GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5704 for July 17, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The British pound gain strength amid a downward correction, currently its short-term uptrend is not in danger. The weekly resistance level 1.5704, which is the key to the pair, has a clear path and can continue its way to the south. We believe that this will happen only when it has resolved the major part of the problems within the European Union. Taking into account that gloomy future, we recommend selling at the level of 1.5704 with targets at 1.5520.
On the other hand, a return to the weekly pivot line recommend buying at this level the pair, again sought to break the 1.57.
The trend indicator shows bullish strength.



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EUR/JPY Pullback Underway - Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations 2012-07-16

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
Looking at the wave structure above, we can see that the pullback of the wave 4 seems to be underway now. Minimum expectations are towards 98.00/98.50, which is also the convergence point of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and past support turned resistance. It is recommended to stay long with a strict stop, this pullback has just started.
Trading Recommendations:
1. Aggressive strategy: stay long from last Friday recommendations, Stop at 95.00, Target 98.50.
2. Conservative approach: wait to sell at 98.50 level for a down target below 93.00
Good Luck!

Gold Not Giving Up On Lat Weeks Support at 1548/49 Levels. 2012-07-13

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
The overall structure remains unchanged as discussed yesterday, while short term outlook may change. The last week intermediary support at 1548/49 levels, depicted as S1 above, is not giving in to the bears as yet. That leaves us with a possibility of a corrective rally that may exceed resistance at 1630.00 levels. Until and unless the support region of 1550/40 levels is not broken convincingly, don’t be surprised if bulls take charge above 1630.00 levels in the coming sessions.
Trading Recommendations:
1. Cover short positions if taken yesterday.
2. Aggressive strategy would be to buy with stop at 1545.00, target at 1660/70 levels.
3. Conservative strategy would be flat for now. Trade on a breakdown of 1540.oo levels.

Eur/Jpy Bears Targetting at 93.50/94.00 Region - Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations 2012-07-12

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
As depicted above, the pullback towards the 101.50 level last month can be considered as Wave 4. Wave 5 is under way now and the bears should be targetting at the 93.50/94.00 levels as downside minimum projections. Near term support is cast by the 96.00 levels while immediate resistance comes in at the 98.50/60 levels. We expect a pullbacks to be well capped below this resistance level now.

Trading Recommendations:
Sell intraday rallies towards 98.00/ 98.50 levels, Stop at the 101.30 level, Target - 93.50

EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for July 10 - 2012

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Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

Support Resistance
1: 97.39 1: 98.19
2: 97.02 2: 98.69
3: 95.65 3: 99.09

Technical Overview:
The ongoing blue wave iv has for now remained below the resistance at 98.30. It is a little to early to say that blue wave iv is done with, but we should expect this blue wave iv being a shallow correction and should take the shape of a flat correction or a triangle, the reason for this is, that blue wave ii corrected 61.8% of blue wave i and Elliott Alternations principle tells us, that a sharp simple correction as wave ii should be followed by a shallow but more complex correction in wave iv. Once blue wave iv is over we should see a decline towards the ideal target near 94.58 in blue wave v.

Trading Recommendation:
You should be short from 99.55 with stop at break-even and take profit at 95.85. If you are not short already you should short a test into the 98.23 - 98.30 area with the same stop and take profit levels.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-09

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Gold is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 1,576 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 1,540.
Technical indicators provide buy-signals and approaching oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1,576 with the 1st objective at 1,590 and then at 1,590. A break through 1,573 will alter this scenario.

AUD/USD Possibly lower within new correction - Analysis for July 6, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in an upward move developing final 5 wave of the bigger wave 1 (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe an ascending movement toward the 1.0328 level. We can consider this move as the end of the impulsive wave 1 (coloured blue). Therefore, during the New York session this currency pair started pushing lower and price reached 1.0250 level. Today the AUD/USD pair continued trading in a bearish mood and price is currently testing 100 EMA support level. At the moment we can observe the beginning of wave 2 and we are expecting to see price under 1.0250 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 retraces 61.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci Retracements (0.9968-1.0328) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0148 (50% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0106(61.8% of wave 1). Resistance point at 1.0330 can be used as a Stop Loss point.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0199 (S2) 1.0232 (S1) 1.0252 (PP) 1.0286 (R1) 1.0319 (R2) 1.0339 (R3) 1.0373
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0240 with Stop Loss at 1.0330 Take Profit 1 at 1.0148 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0106 are recommended.

AUD/USD Above 1.0350 Today - Analysis for July 4, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in a slight upward move, developing final wave 5 of the bigger wave 1 (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe descending movement toward the 1.0245 level. Therefore, during the New York session the AUD/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and we could observe upward move that brings this pair to the new daily high 1.0295. Today during the Asian session we could observe continuation of the bullish mood and today we are expecting to see the end of the 5 impulsive wave (coloured pink). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets measuring 1 wave with Take Profit at 1.0369 (100% of wave 1). Support at 1.0245 can be used as a Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to know that U.S. banks have holidays so we can’t expect to see much volatility today in NY session.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0174 (S2) 1.0205 (S1) 1.0241 (PP) 1.0269 (R1) 1.0308 (R2) 1.0336 (R3) 1.0375
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0300 with Stop Loss at 1.0245 and Take Profit at 1.0369 are recommended.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-03

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Gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel at 1,610 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and reach the upper limit of this one to 1,644.
Technical indicators provide buy-signals but approaching to overbuy zone supporting the assumption of a decline. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold has broken through its resistance of 1,610 with the 1st objective at 1,620 and then at 1,625. A break through 1,607 will invalidate this scenario.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-02

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Gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel at 1,615 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and reach the upper limit of this one to 1,644.
Technical indicators provide sell-signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold has broken through its resistance of 1,615 with the 1st objective at 1,625 and then at 1,630. A break through 1,612 will invalidate this scenario.

USD/CAD Pushing Lower Today - Analysis for June 29, 2012

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
The USD/CAD pair was trading in an upward move on Thursday developing impulsive wave 1 (colored blue). During both the Asian and the European sessions we could observe strong ascending movement in this major pair that brings price to the new 3 weeks high at 1.0037 level. Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached 1.0361 level. We can consider this level as end of the 1 wave (coloured blue). At the moment we can observe the start of the 2 wave (coloured blue) and we are expecting to see price around 1.0280 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 retraces minimum 50% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0231-1.0361) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0296 (50% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0281 (61.8% of wave 1). Yesterday’s high at 1.0361 can be used as a Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the CAD GDP m/m, RMPI m/m, IPPI m/m and U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0178 (S2) 1.0228 (S1) 1.0258 (PP) 1.0308 (R1) 1.0358 (R2) 1.0388 (R3) 1.0438
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0325 with Stop Loss at 1.0361 Take Profit 1 at 1.0296 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0281 are recommended.

USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for June 28, 2012

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In order to confirm the expected Head & Shoulders reversal pattern, the USD/CAD pair needed to breakdown the neck-line around 1.0240 to open the way towards its bearish target at 1.0160. However, the pair failed to do so today. Instead, it showed significant bullish price action towards 1.0240 which pushed the pair towards the upper limit of the Yellow channel and the backside of the broken violet channel around 1.0275.
Price Level 1.0240 constitutes an important Intraday Support Level for USD/CAD corresponding to the neck-line of the H&S pattern and the mid-line of the Blue & Yellow bearish channels.
Price Level 1.0275 constitutes an important Resistance Level for the pair corresponding to the upper limit of the Yellow channel where price action of the pair should be watched for a possible low-risk SELL entry. However, breakthrough of 1.0275 probably leads to a quick bullish movement towards 1.0305 initially.
Breakdown of 1.0240 confirms the H&S pattern opening the way for the pair towards 1.0160. However, failure of the pair to do so invalidates the bearish scenario and the H&S pattern.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-27

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5650 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 1.5700.
Technical indicators provide sell-signals and until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5650 with the 1st objective at 1.5700 and then at 1.5720. A break through 1.5630will invalidate this scenario.

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-26

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5600 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 1.5700.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5600 with the 1st objective at 1.5660 and then at 1.5680. A break through 1.5580 will invalidate this scenario.

InstaForex

USD/CAD pushing higher - Analysis for June 25, 2012

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
During the Friday's trading session the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move developing corrective 4 wave (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe ascending movement toward the 1.0299 level. We can consider this move as the end of the 3 wave (coloured blue). Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair started pushing lower and price reached a new daily low at 1.0240 level (end of the corrective 4 wave). Today during the Asian session this major pair has started pushing higher and the price is currently around the 1.0270 level.
Presently we can see the developing of the final 5 wave of the bigger wave (1) (coloured green) and we are waiting for the price to move higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring (1) wave (coloured green) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0305 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0346 (161.8% of wave 1). Resistance at 1.0230 can be used as a Stop Loss point.
Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. New Home Sales data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0202 (S2) 1.0224(S1) 1.0238 (PP) 1.0260(R1) 1.0282 (R2) 1.0296(R3) 1.0318
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0285 with Stop Loss at 1.0230 Take Profit 1 at 1.0305 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0346 are recommended.

GBP/USD: Sideways Trend for June 22, 2012

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.5632.

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Sideways Trend: Prices are moving within a narrow range between 1.5600 and 1.5850.

GBP/USD:

• Resistance: 1.5906. (Sell below this level).
• Support: 1.5600. (Buy above this level).
  

Trading Recommendations:

According to the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.5600 and 1.5850.

• The descending movement will probably take place lower than the 1.5906 level with the first targets at levels 1.5783 and 1.565.
• BUY deals are recommended higher than the 1.5600 level with targets at levels 1.5710 and 1.5850.

Overview:

It should be noted that the market revealed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. In the light of the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.5600 and 1.5850, so it is recommended to be cautious while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then, the market will probably indicate the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, BUY deals are recommended higher than the 1.5600 level with its first target at the level of 1.5710. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point 1.5850 and further to the level 1.59. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.5906, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level 1.5906. In this regard, SELL deals are recommended lower than the 1.5906 level with the first target at 1.5780. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.5670 then 1.5632 (The weekly pivot point).

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-21

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 100.60 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 99.40.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but are approaching overbuy zone supporting a break of its support. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 100.60 with the 1st objective at 101.20 and then at 101.40. A break through 100.40 will alter this scenario.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for June 14, 2012

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The 4H chart reveals significant resistance level located around 1.5635 corresponding to the lower limit of a previous congestion zone which hasn't been tested yet.
The GBP/USD demonstrated significant bearish reaction manifested in the bearish engulfing 4H candlesticks which predicted a possible breakdown of the Violet channel that took place today in order to resume the downtrend initiated long time ago.
Termination of the current bullish move initiated last week becomes confirmed on breakdown of Support Level 1.5450.


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The 1H chart depicts a strong bullish reaction towards Price Level 1.5460 which corresponds to the lower limit of the Blue and Yellow channels. However, the pair expressed significant bearish reaction Yesterday at testing of price level 1.5600.
Breakdown the mid-line of the Yellow channel at 1.5555 opened the way towards the lower limit of the same channel around price zone 1.5470-1.5480 which is being tested now.
The lower limit of the Yellow channel at 1.5470-1.5480 constitutes a Strong Support Zone and a possible quick Intraday BUY entry with TP at 1.5550.
The GBP/USD has a strong Intraday Resistance Level at 1.5555 corresponding to the mid-line of the Yellow channel which constitutes a valid Intraday SELL entry with SL located above 1.5600.
TP levels are to be located at 1.5510, 1.5470 and 1.5410.

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for June 13, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in an upward movement developing impulsive 3 wave. During the European session we could observe ascending movement toward the 0.9930 level. Therefore during the New York session AUD/USD continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached a new daily high at the 0.9966 level. Today during the Asian session the AUD/USD pair found support at 0.9930 and price continued pushing higher. At the moment we are in the middle of the impulsive 3 wave (coloured pink) and we expect to see the price higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets Fibonacci extensions (0.9820-1.0008-0.9850) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0087 (127.2% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0152 (161.8% of wave 1). Support level at 0.9930 can be used as a Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core PPI m/m, Business Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories and 10-y Bond Auction data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 0.9808 (S2) 0.9852 (S1) 0.9880 (PP) 0.9925 (R1) 0.9969 (R2) 0.9997 (R3) 1.0042
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0000 with Stop Loss at 0.9930 Take Profit 1 at 1.0087 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0152 are recommended.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-12

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The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5540 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and initiate a violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators provide buy-signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most probable. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened these days pointing at decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events the market will offer a bullish prospect as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5540 with the 1st objective at 1.5600 and then at 1.5620. A break through 1.5520 will invalidate this scenario.