GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-06-30

Gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium-term bullish channel in 1520 suggesting a decline . However a break of these levels would allow it to reach the upper limit of the channel to 1560.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1520 with a 1st objective of 1530, then 1534. A break in 1518 would invalidate this scenario.

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EUR/JPY Possible Bullish Opportunity - June 29, 2011

17 March candlestick marked in the chart came as a very nice hummer indicating strong bullish rejection of support level 106.80 .
Since beginning of May 2011 price has been consolidating between 38.2% - 61.8% Fibonatcci levels .
Watching 61.8% Fibonatcci level , we notice the nice bullish reaction of the daily candlesticks as Full Body bullish candlesticks .

On 4H timeframe we had a broken downtrend line successfully retested as marked in the chart .
Then we had a successful break of the resistance level 115.70 .
Also we notice the uptrend line on the MACD indicator marked in the chart .
Based on the previous Analysis :
The view for the pair is bullish
Best BUY area is the retest of the broken resistance level 115.70 now acting as support .
TP for long positions is 116.50 , 117.00 .
SL should be 4H closure below 114.90 .


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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for June 24, 2011

Earlier in a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has formed Morning Doji Star candlestick combination indicating bullish signal.
This candlestick combination was formed after the pair failed to break the support level 1.5932 which means that the bears could not solidify here. Further the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound to the upside took place.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect growth to the resistance level 1.6262 where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located. If the pair fixates above 1.6262, this will target it to 1.6472.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly below 1.5932 as a break of this support level will allow the pair to reach 1.5750.

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Final results of “Win Lotus with InstaForex” campaign

EUR/JPY Two possible scenarios and trade opportunity June 9, 2011

EUR/JPY currency pair has been consolidating inside bullish channel since 23 May .
As we follow the price action towards the upper limit of red channel we see strong rejection of the level 117.70 which has proved itself as a strong resistance level till now .
Also we notice that the price started to make lower lows and lower highs indicating weakness of the upside direction .
Based on the previous analysis :
4H candlestick closure below the lower limit of the channel (BLUE ONE) gives the signal to go SHORT with target at 115.05
4h candlestick closure above the upper limit of the channel ( RED ONE ) gives the signal to go LONG which isn't recommended as we see .
SL for both positions is the achievement of the opposite one .


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CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook June 08, 2011 (Daily Strategy)

CRUDE OIL
The oil price is consolidating between the levels of 97.90 to 103.20, so it has not yet defined exactly if it continued its downtrend in the short term, or retake its upward trend long term. The first position can by buy now  (98,20) and strengthened later by an additional position in the event that the price of oil breaks through the nearby resistance rate at 100.60 dollars or close above the weekly pivot line.
The price of oil is expected to easily rise above the resistance level of 105,90 dollars and perhaps go even higher than that.



 

British pound forecast in terms of market profile for Tuesday, June 7, 2011

On Monday, June 6, the market profile on the British pound is referred to the trend day.
During the trading day the British pound slid down against the US dollar and garnered the support only after it reached the POC area of June 3 – 1.6339.
By the results of the day the fair price zones are positioned within VAL – 1.6383 and VAH – 1.6459. The POC control point was formed at 1.6426.
Forecast for today:
At the early Asian session the British pound slides down against the US dollar.
In case the downfall continues the first support level will be Ibx.3 – 1.6327 from which it may continue declining to POC of May 26 – 1.6310 and then to 1.6290 – VAH of May 25, 2011.
 
1.6382 – VAL , 1.6394 – VAL 1 , 1.6408 – VAL 27 .
«» 1.6420 – POC 27 , POC .
. , Forex.

– POC (Point of Control) – , .
– VAL – , , POC.
– VAH - , , POC.
– IBx1.5 (Initial balance) – , ( , , )
– IBx2 – , ( , , ).
– Ibx3 – , ( , , ).
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for May 24, 2011

Overview:
The euro is still observing the sell signal without a target level, formed yesterday, the MACD is also demonstrating a slight correction. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the downside movement is 1.4021 – the first support level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second support level at 1.3885. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.4160), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is ascending, thus indicating current correction movement, if it reverses down this will denote the end of the correction movement.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 1.4021 and further to 1.3885. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.4160 and stretched as the Kijun-sen declines. Short positions should only be opened after the MACD reverses down.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
 The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
 http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/29261/?x=OUE 
 

USD/CHF wave analysis for May 23, 2011

Despite differently directed Friday’s trading, the USD/CHF currency pair managed to end forming the estimated b wave of the current correction structure and observe the 50,0% correction target level after a reverse. At the same time, the decline to 0.8750 at the moment looks like the beginning of the wave of this correction. If so, the indicated downside movement can develop in the direction of the next possible target located near the 87 figure level. 


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EUR/USD Technical Support and Resistance Level For May 20, 2011

TODAY's  TECHNICAL  LEVELS :

Breakout BUY Level : 1.4394.
Strong Resistance : 1.4386.
Original Resistance : 1.4372.
Inner Sell Area : 1.4358.
Target Inner Area : 1.4324.
Inner Buy Area : 1.4290.
Original Support : 1.4276.
Strong Support : 1.4262.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.4253.

SHORT  DESCRIPTION :

Today the EUR/USD is to find Support and Resistance between 1.4276 and 1.4372 and it has a strong Support at 1.4262 and a strong Resistance at 1.4386; if today the EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.4253, it will be a sign for Short trading for today; on the other hand, if the pair can break out and close above 1.4394, it will be the sign for LONG trading for today. Another option for the advanced trader can be trading between the Inner Buy Level at the 1.4290 for LONG trading and the Inner Sell Level at the 1.4358 for the SHORT trading, and all of them with the target at the 1.4324 level.
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EUR/USD wave analysis for May 19, 2011

During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD could not define further direction. At the same time, the price is still within the wave structure that at the moment can be characterized as another series of abc correction waves. Thus, current situation allows both resumption of downside movement in the range of the future 5th wave in the estimated 3rd (or C), and possible development of a new uptrend section.
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USD/JPY wave analysis for May 19, 2011

Yesterday during the Asian session the USD/JPY did not manage to pass the 81 figure level and advanced to 81.70 by the end of the day. At the same time, the current situation is developing, and as a result the price might form the 1st wave of the future new uptrend section. At the same time, current MACD divergence still allows a new stage of declining in the direction of the lows reached earlier.

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USD Rallies On FOMC Minutes, Dollar Index To Maintain Trend

The U.S. dollar pared the overnight decline, with the Dow Jones-FXCM index bouncing back from a low of 9604.27, and the rebound may gather pace going into the end of the week as the Federal Reserve changes its tone for monetary policy. The index is 0.21% higher on the day after moving 94% of its average true range, and the gauge looks poised to test 9750.00 over the coming days as it continues to trade within an upward trending channel. However, as the relative strengthen index approaches oversold territory, there is likely to be a small pull back before we see the dollar index continue to retrace the decline from the previous month.

The majority of the FOMC said they favored raising the benchmark interest rate before unwinding its asset purchases, with the group debatinga possible exit strategy at the policy meeting earlier this month. However, the Fed went onto say that the recent discussion should not be interpreted as an imminent tightening in monetary policy as the committee continues to see a “moderate” recovery in the world’s largest economy. The minutes revealed that QE3 remains off the table unless there’s a marked shift in the economic outlook, and noted that the first step to normalizing monetary policy would be to cease MBS reinvestment. In terms of growth and inflation, the central bank argued that the rise in price growth is likely to be transitory, while policy makers expect unemployment to gradually decline given the ongoing weakness within the private sector. The comments suggest that the FOMC will continue to support the real economy as QE2 expires in June, and the committee may preserve a wait-and-see approach in the third-quarter to encourage a sustainable recovery.

All four components weakened on Wednesday, led by a 0.65% decline in the British Pound, and the sterling may continue to underperform against its major counterparts as the Bank of England maintains a cautious outlook for the U.K. In light of the recent developments, the GBP/USD certainly remains at risk of facing additional headwinds over the near-term, and the exchange rate looks poised to fall back towards former resistance around 1.6000 as it searches for support. However, as price growth in Britain accelerates, the heightening risk for inflation could fuel bets for a rate hike later this year, and interest rate expectations should help to prop up the sterling as market participants weigh the prospects for future policy. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors see borrowing costs in Britain increasing by nearly 50bp over the next 12-months, and interest rate expectations may gather pace in the second-half of the year should the BoE toughen its stance against inflation.

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The EURUSD's reaction to FOMC was about as straightforward as the release itself.

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EURUSD SSI points a relatively mixed picture for short-term price action. Back to net-short, contrarian bullish

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USD/JPY technical overview for May 18, 2011

At the moment the price is located in the zone between the Fibonacci levels 23.6 and 38.2. There is a sell signal from the Stochastic oscillator. Its %K line left the overbought zone for the neutral one. At the Ichimoku chart we can see that the Senkou Span B is forming a support level for the price, which accurately coincides with the Fibonacci 23.6 level. It should also be noted that the price is located in the Cloud and you should wait until the resistance level at the Senkou Span is broken before entering the market.

Resistance – 81.88
Support – 81.01 ; 79.61


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EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-05-17

The spot rate has rebounded on the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.4050  and approach the upper limit of this one to 1.4260. A break of these levels  would free up significant potential and initiate a new trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.4260 with a 1st objective of 1.4380, then 1.4410. A break in 1.4230 would invalidate this scenario. http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28785/?x=OUE

EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 16-20, 2011

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4725
Weekly - R2 = 1.4583
Weekly - R1 = 1.4350
Weekly Pivot = 1.4208
Weekly - S1 = 1.3975
Weekly - S2 = 1.3833
Weekly - S3 = 1.3600       http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28749/?x=OUE
 
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5921
Monthly - R2 = 1.5401
Monthly - R1 = 1.5104
Monthly Pivot = 1.4584
Monthly - S1 = 1.4287
Monthly - S2 = 1.3767
Monthly - S3 = 1.3470

British Pound Sentiment Shows Sell Signal

GBPUSD – A noteworthy jump in GBPUSD long positions warns that the pair could continue its very recent declines. Trading crowds had remained net-short the GBPUSD from early April into the beginning of may, giving contrarian signal to stay long. Yet the SSI ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.61 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.31 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.3% higher than yesterday and 21.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 18.5% lower than yesterday and 10.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.8% weaker than yesterday and 0.9% above its monthly average. The strong build in long positions gives contrarian signal to sell into further GBPUSD declines

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Gold and silver review for May 11, 2011

A sharp decrease in futures on gasoline caused a temporary suspense in NYMEX trading with futures on energy sources following an unexpected growth of the US reserves. This fall influenced prices for precious metals because traders who suffered losses from correction of prices for raw materials last week were selling their assets.
By the end of COMEX trades quotations of July futures on silver declined by USD 2.971 (7.7%) down to USD 35.515 per ounce.
May futures on silver dropped by USD 2.971 (7.7%) and equaled USD 35.509. Quotations of June futures on gold lost USD 15.50 (1%) and constituted USD 1501.40 per ounce. May futures on gold cheapened by 1% and equaled USD 1501.10.
Prices for silver showed a gradual decline on Wednesday, as rumours over Portugal likely to be forced to swap its reserves stored in precious metals for the EU financial assistance caused speculative sells. Portugal has been experiencing hardships in fulfilling its debt obligations and facing a weak economic growth for the recent months.
Futures on silver also dropped due to a downwards tendency and futures approaching the level of USD 40 forced technical traders to fix their profits which pushed the prices down.
The declining gold prices were restrained by a higher than usually level of inflation in China. The Chinese CPI grew in April by 5.3% as compared to a rise of 5.4% in March last year. Economists had forecasted ma growth of 5.2%.
Investors consider gold to be a means of saving and a toll of hedging against inflation. This metal is growing increasingly attractive when inflation is on increase.
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