GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-12-08

Technical analysis

Albert Fitoussi

The gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel in 1740 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would allow it to reach the upper limit of its channel to 1756.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1740 with a 1st objective of 1750, then 1756. A break in 1737 would invalidate this scenario.
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 7, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 119.31. Within this wave there are A and B waves (colored magenta in the chart) of smaller degree, with subwave B still developing from 122.64. The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 119.31-122.64, and expansions off 122.64-121.24-122.23.

Supports:

- 120.83 = objective point (OP)
- 120.58 = .618 retracement
- 119.96 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-119.31, 125.63-119.31, 122.64-120.90, and expansions off 119.31-122.64-120.90.

Resistances:

- 121.56 = .382 ret
- 121.77 = .50 ret
- 121.98 = .618 ret
- 122.96 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.22 = .618 ret
- 123.28 = .50 ret

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices).

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

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Fundamental Analysis, December, 06 / 2011

Gerardo Porras

Fundamental analysis

The week began with a certain relief in the markets, with a moderately positive jobs report in the U.S., and the ISM service, which although did not offer the expected growth, was not that far.

However, in the afternoon in New York, learned that Standard & Poor's announced shortly his change of perspective for the debt of 17 countries with the euro as currency.

To Sarkozy and Merkel, meeting in Paris, there are probably choking lunch with the news, but worse happened who bought euros at that time: the single currency fell unmitigated from

1.3470 to 1.3370 area in minutes before offering some reprieve.

The forex market has, in this sense, its most unpredictable: These ads are not provided and the time of publication generate unforeseeable movements.

Beyond the operational issue, the European leaders meeting scheduled for Thursday, 8 at night and on Friday 9, seems to be decisive (again) for the future of the euro.

There are many voices, and very authoritative, like Buffett and Soros, who think the way it is, the euro is low life, whatever the measures taken to save it.

The truth is that businesses large and small, money problems are solved with money. And the deficits, whether family, business or nation, are solved by lowering expenses or increasing revenues.

To think that by lowering the cost of debt, increase exports, and maintaining a proper level of subsidies governments of South American countries with no international credibility will improve the situation is a gross error that Europe is committing right now .

There is talk of debt, rate of interest of banks. No mention of production, sales, consumption, exports and growth. When the equation is back, begin to change the situation.

Tuesday's European session returns to the prevailing climate of pessimism, and just after midday stock indexes of the old continent have a profit, although very moderate.

European currencies, meanwhile, recovered positions, once again exceeding the 1.34 euro and the pound sterling above 1.56. In turn, currencies linked to commodities uptrends retake paths, all in the short term.

At 9:00 of the East know the monetary policy announcement by the Bank of Canada, being the most important fact of the day from the macro.

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation December 5, 2011

Technical analysis

Mohamed Samy

In the period 11-25 November, GBP/USD currency pair was trending down inside a bearish channel which is marked on the chart.

Finally the pair found support at 1.5420 which prevented further decline of the pair price.

Last week the pair established an intraday support zone at 1.5620-1.5585 which is being retested giving a possible good LONG entry.

The key-level for today is 1.5590 which is 23.6% Fibonacci level, previous distinct high & previous demand zone.

Also We have a strong resistance at 1.5870-1.5910 which is marked on the chart ( 61.8% Fibonacci level & Previous lows & highs ).

On Friday we suggested having a LONG entry on retesting of the 1.5620-1.5585 support zone which is still open till now.

Based on the previous analysis

For those who didn't catch the trade on Friday, a LONG entry may be taken at 1.5620-1.5585 as long as the pair doesn't break-through the zone.

[TP at 1.5670, 1.5750, 1.5790 then 1.5860 & SL placed below 1.5520].

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USD/CAD Noughs and Crosses analysis for December 2, 2011

Sergey Litvinenko

Technical analysis

After bouncing off the support level 1.014 the USD/CAD currency pair advanced to 1.022 where it is about to resume downside movement.

The pair has a potential to reach the support level 1.01 where it might correct again.

In case the price reverses and breaks the resistance level at 1.022 the upside movement will last up to 1.028 where the additional trendline is located.

It is not recommended to buy this pair due to being in a strong downside trend.

Support levels: 1.014

Resistance levels: 1.022

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Fundamental Analysis, December, 01 / 2011

Fundamental analysis

Gerardo Porras

On Wednesday, an agreement between six central banks, they have already taken important decisions against the yen in March and agreed that joint actions several times, went back into action.

Through this new agreement will run until mid-2013 a series of currency swaps between these entities, while refinancing debt agreed to continue to provide a sustainable exit to the crisis that European economies are embedded in the first place, and also the United States.

Also, during the European session, the People's Bank of China had cut the lace that banks should be deposited in the state, seeking to provide loans to individuals, and thus give dynamism to the local economy.

The other positive news of the day came from the hand of the ADP private survey, which showed employment growth well above that expected in November, which also generates optimism for the official data, due on Friday.

Earnings of European stock exchanges of New York and spread the good climate to foreign exchange. To advertisements, the euro, British pound, Swiss franc and the yen recovered quickly positions, bringing its short-term charts against the dollar in very bullish trends.

Logically, on closing the U.S. session, there were logical correction of a movement of this kind, without, however, changing the trends that had formed hours before.

The announcement of the central bank does not work, let alone the European crisis, but it does give some air to their leaders, who seem disoriented in recent days, making decisions and issuing advertisements then not carried out.

No significant developments during Thursday's Asian session, European stock markets seem to have appeased the euphoria of yesterday, and operate with losses of 0.5%.

In turn, presented the major currencies against the dollar disparate behaviors, greatly strengthened the euro area and looking again at 1.35 and the pound sterling also showing an upward trend in the short term. The currencies linked to commodities have a different perspective for the rest of the day. The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar not consolidating its upward trend on Wednesday, losing strength in the last hours.

In the U.S. session will be announced Thursday at 8:30 Eastern, weekly unemployment requests, and at 10:00 the ISM manufacturing, which are the interesting facts of the day.

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 30, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

AUD/USD is developing corrective wave B of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 0.9663. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored red in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 0.9863. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-0.9663, and expansions off 0.9666-0.9975-0.9863, 0.9863-1.0077-0.9975.

Resistances:

- 1.0107 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0172 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0189 = OP
- 1.0208 = .50 retracements

If the pair reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9663-1.0085.

Supports:

- 0.9924 = .382 ret
- 0.9874 = .50 ret
- 0.9824 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (current prices).

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 29, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 119.31. Within the latter there are two subwaves (colored red in the chart) and corrective subwave B is developing from 121.62. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 125.63-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-121.62-120.70.

Resistances:

- 121.72 = .382 retracement
- 122.13 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.47 = .50 ret
- 123.01 = objective point (OP)
- 123.22 = .618 ret

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.32-121.62, 119.82-121.62.

Supports:

- 120.74-72 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 120.51-47 = confluence area of .618 and .50 ret
- 120.19 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (35-45 pips below the current prices).

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 28, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. Within the latter there are five subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) and potential corrective subwave A is developing from 119.31. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 121.70-119.31, 125.63-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-120.40-119.82.

Resistances:

- 120.49-51 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .50 retracement
- 120.79 = .618 ret
- 120.91 = objective point (OP)
- 121.58 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 119.31 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 25, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. Within the latter there are five subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 developing from 124.22. The wave from 124.22 has four subwaves (colored red in the chart), with potential subwave 4 still developing from 119.31. The targets below are Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63, 125.63-122.90-124.22, 124.22-120.82-121.70, 121.70-119.97-120.87.

Supports:

- 119.14 = objective point (OP)
- 118.30 = OP
- 118.07 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.70-119.31.

Resistances:

- 120.22 = .382 retracement
- 120.51 = .50 ret
- 120.79 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-25 pips above the current prices).

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 24, 2011

Technical analysis

Sergey Litvinenko

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave C still developing from 1.0343. Within the latter wave C there are also waves A, B and C (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0106. The tragets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0752-1.0051-1.0343, 1.0343-0.9964-1.0106, 1.0106-0.99808-0.9898, 0.9898-0.9812-0.9868.

Supports:

- 0.9643-42 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and objective point (OP)
- 0.9600 = OP
- 0.9493 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9416 = XOP

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0106-0.9663, 0.9898-0.9663.

Resistances:

- 0.9753 = .382 retracement
- 0.9781 = .50 ret
- 0.9808 = .618 ret
- 0.9832 = .382 ret
- 0.9885 = .50 ret
- 0.9937 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (20-25 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (50-65 pips above the current prices).

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Fundamental Analysis, November, 23 / 2011

Fundamental analysis

Gerardo Porras

The dollar strengthened on all fronts by averaging the European session on Wednesday, growing stronger against the euro, pound sterling and Swiss franc.
The problems facing Europe, more precisely the states with financial problems to meet their sovereign debt, as well as doubts about maneuvers that would be carrying out some banks to "disguise" losses and present a positive number, print a downward force to the euro , who arrived 1 hour at its lowest since Oct. 10.
The euro area remains the center, with investor concerns about escalating plans for a new attempt to rescue Dexia, the Franco-Belgian bank to the brink of bankruptcy as a result of exposure to sovereign debt.
In turn, a negative German manufacturing PMI "helped" this new downward movement of the single currency.
Nevertheless, the stock of the old continent have no negative day: the DAX 30 in Germany grows above 2.5%, figures similar to the CAC 40 and FTSE 100. From there you can also explain the slight recovery experienced by the euro in the last hour.
In the U.S. session key data is expected on durable goods orders, which once generated great expectations among operators, which produced sharp movements. Although the impact that in recent months is somewhat devalued, the forecast is for growth of the orders of 0.1% in October, compared with 1.8% the previous period, subject to revision.
Also known reports of income and personal consumption, all at 8:30 Eastern. Meanwhile, at 9:55 will be the turn of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan / Reuters, and 10:30, the weekly inventory of oil.
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 22, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. Within the latter there are also three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with impulse subwave C developing from 124.22. The wave from 124.22 also has five subwaves (colored red in the chart), with subwave 5 still developing from 121.70. The targets below are Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63, 125.63-122.90-124.22, 124.22-122.26-123.09, 123.09-120.82-121.70, 121.70-119.97-120.87.
Supports:
- 119.92-80 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and two expanded objective point (XOP)
- 119.43 = objective point (OP)
- 119.14 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 124.22-119.97.
Resistances:
- 121.59 = .382 ret
- 122.10 = .50 ret
- 122.60 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 21, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave C still developing from 1.0343. Within the latter wave C there are also waves A, B and C (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0106. The tragets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0051-1.0343, 1.0343-0.9964-1.0106.
Supports:
- 0.9910-08 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 ret
- 0.9872 = COP
- 0.9727 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9642 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0343 - this wave is not developed so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (40-55 pips above the current prices).
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EUR/JPY Buy Long 104,47 November 18, 2011 (Daily Strategy)

Technical analysis

Gerardo Porras

EUR/JPY
The Euro - Japanese yen pair has formed a bottom around 103.40. this level is strong support because in 4 hours charts, thirteen times and tried to drill this level has been unsuccessful. Given that the euro is now showing signs of recovery, we can enter a buy order in the future, only if the pair manages to break his line so sharp downtrend and closed above 1.0445. With a medium-term goal to the last resistance of 1.0789, the range indicator shows oversold upward bounce is imminent. On the other hand, we will place stop loss just below the 103.40 level test. yen per euro.

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 17, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. Within the latter there are also three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with impulse subwave C developing from 124.22. The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 116.91-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63, 125.63-122.90-124.22, 124.22-122.26-123.09.
Supports:
- 120.78 = .618 retracement
- 120.13 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 119.92-80 = confluence area of two XOP's
- 119.02 = .786 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 124.22-120.82.
Resistances:
- 122.12 = .382 ret
- 122.52 = .50 ret
- 122.92 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (10-20 pips above the current prices).
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