GBP/JPY Wave Analysis for August 16,2012

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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave
For the last few days the GBP/JPY pair was trading in an upward move, developing impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe an ascending movement towards the 124.93 level where this exotic currency found resistance. Therefore, during the early New York session the GBP/JPY pair did not manage to hold this level and the price slipped towards the 123.30 level (new daily low). At the moment the price is trading around 124.20 level and we are expecting to see it around 125.20 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (121.07-123.25-131.78) with Take Profit at 125.22 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support point at 123.60 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the GBP Retail Sales m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 122.97 (S2) 123.26 (S1) 123.43 (PP) 123.71 (R1) 124.00 (R2) 124.17 (R3) 124.45
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 124.40 with Stop Loss 123.60 and Take Profit 125.22 are recommended.
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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 15,2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move, developing corrective wave (2) (coloured purple) of the bigger 3 (coloured blue). During the Asian and early European sessions we could observe a strong ascending movement towards the 1.2385 level and we can consider this move as the end of the (1) wave (coloured purple). Therefore, during the second half of the EU session the EUR/USD did not manage to hold this level and the price slipped towards the 1.2316 level. At the moment we can observe the price trading in a sideways move and we are expecting to see it higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2240-1.2385-1.2316) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2460 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2550 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.2240 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m and Crude Oil Inventories data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2272 (S2) 1.2298 (S1) 1.2315 (PP) 1.2341 (R1) 1.2367 (R2) 1.2384 (R3) 1.2410
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2345 with Stop Loss 1.2240, Take Profit 1 1.2460, and Take Profit 2 1.2550 are recommended.
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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-14

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Gold is actually testing the upper limit of its medium term triangle at 1,625 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels would free a large potential and initiate a violent bullish trend. In case of failure we will be able to delay the width of the base of the triangle at the breaking point to define the theoretical objective.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the resistance is not broken, the hypothesis of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility. Moreover, the superior band strengthens the upper limit of its channel suggesting a more violent movement in case of break.
We recommend to buy the gold as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,625 with the 1st objective at 1,636 and then at 1,640. A breakthrough 1,622 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 9, 2012

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The main tendency for the GBP/USD pair was bullish this week. As we see, the pair has been moving within three bullish channels which are depicted on the chart. However, the pair is showing some bullish weakness which is manifested in the recent overlapping swings that are taking place within the current Yellow channel.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair met the intraday Resistance Level of 1.5665 which expressed a significant bearish price action till now pushing the pair to the downside to test the lower limit of the Violet channel around price level of 1.5645. If this is broken, the pair will be able to resume its bearish movement towards 1.5600, 1.5545 then 1.5505.
The upper limit of the Yellow channel around 1.5690-1.5700 is considered as a strong intraday Resistance Level and a valid SELL entry with SL located above 1.5735.
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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-08

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Gold is approaching to the upper limit of its medium term triangle at 1,626 and seems to initiate decline. However, a break through this level will make it possible to get over the basis height of the triangle on its output.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Moreover, the superior band strengthens the upper limit of the triangle.
According to previous events, the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as gold breaks through its resistance of 1,626 with the 1st objective at 1,636 and then at 1,640. A breakthrough 1,623 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis for August 7 - 2012

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Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
S1: 96.70 R1: 97.26
S2: 96.36 R2: 97.80
S3: 96.01 R3: 98.16


Technical Overview:
We saw a perfect test of the 96.70 support yesterday, but we need a break above minor resistance at 97.26 to confirm that red wave ii is over and red wave iii has begun. The first target for red wave iii is at 100.30, but if it extends further, we should see a rally towards 101.52.
However, as long as minor resistance at 97.26 has not been broken, there is a possibility for a deeper correction in red wave ii towards 96.36 and even deeper to 96.01, which we must respect as just a normal correction of red wave i if seen.
Trading Recommendation:
You should be long EUR against JPY at 95.85 or from yesterday’s low at 96.70 with stop at 94.95. Lift this stop to 95.85 upon a break above 97.80. If you are not long EUR already, then buy a break above 97.26 with the same stop.

EUR/USD - Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points and signals- For 06 - 10 August , 2012

The Pivot Point (PPV) is used as support and resistance at the same time; it is the first level that we observe. For this week the pivot points (weekly and monthly) for EUR/USD are: 1.2307 weekly; 1.2342 monthly.
The euro is located above the weekly pivot point and bellow the Moving Average of 200 periods.
Accordingly, the pivot points signify the following.
A daily close above the pivot point of 1.2307 can increase the probability of a rise to 1.2578 weekly resistance (W_R2). On the other hand, a close below the weekly pivot point will initiate a decline which could continue until 1.2210 (W_S1); it is possible that at that level the pair may find a strong rebound, so we recommend buying on weekly support 1.2210 or above the weekly pivot point, (PV) with medium term targets until 1.2578(W_R2).

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.2752
Weekly - R2 = 1.2578
Weekly - R1 = 1.2481
Weekly Pivot = 1.2307
Weekly - S1 = 1.2210
Weekly - S2 = 1.2036
Weekly - S3 = 1.1939

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____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.3274
Monthly - R2 = 1.2977
Monthly - R1 = 1.2639
Monthly Pivot = 1.2342
Monthly - S1 = 1.2004
Monthly - S2 = 1.1707
Monthly - S3 = 1.1369


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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 2 - 2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move developing final C wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (2) (coloured green). During the Asian and European sessions this major pair was trading in a sideways move between 1.2285 and 1.2335 levels. Therefore, during the New York session the EUR/USD did not manage to hold this level and we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.2215 level. We can consider this move as the end of the corrective wave (2) (coloured green). At the moment we can observe the beginning of the impulsive wave (3) and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2365 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2041-1.2390-1.2215) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2565(100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2778 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk we can use Invalidation point at 1.2041 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference and U.S. Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders m/m, Natural Gas Storage data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2143 (S2) 1.2188 (S1) 1.2216 (PP) 1.2261 (R1) 1.2306 (R2) 1.2334 (R3) 1.2379
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2300 with Stop Loss 1.2040, Take Profit 1 1.2565 and Take Profit 2 at 1.2778 are recommended.

Silver Technical Levels and Trading Recommendatios for Aug 1 , 2012

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Overview


The H4 chart demonstrates today that silver takes a downward move after its rebound from the upper limit of the bullish channel and the Resistance level 28.40 and presently it is testing the Support level 27.85. If silver continues its bearish view and manages to break this Support level, it will provide a good opportunity to sell below the Support level as well as will make it possible to reach the Support level 27.50 as a level target. After that we should wait for breaking out of this Support level to continue the bearish move. In case silver is able to break the Support level 27.50 and close 4H below, we will get a bearish strength which will provide new sell signals and enable the Support level 27.20 as a level target.
On the other hand, if silver reverses its bearish move and takes an upward move after its rebound from the Support level 27.85, this will be a strong indicator for the bullish move after closing 4H above the Support level enabling the Resistance level 28.40 again. In this case, we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to continue the bullish view. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide sell signals, but as long as the Support level 27.85 is unbroken, the upward move is still expected and invalidating the downward movement. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and Support levels
R3(29.10)
R2(28.95)
R1(28.40)
S1(27.85)
S2(27.50)
S3(27.20)

Trading Recommendations
According to previous analysis, we recommend selling in case of closing 4H below the Support level 27.85 with TP1 27.40 and TP2 27.00; SL closing 4H above the Support level might be appropriate.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for Jully 31, 2012

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Today’s Technical Level:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2318.
Strong Resistance: 1.2311.
Original Resistance: 1.2300.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2288.
Target Inner Area: 1.2260.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2230.
Original Support: 1.2220.
Strong Support: 1.2208.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2201.
Description:
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2220 and 1.2300 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2208 and by 1.2311 as strong resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below a 1.2201 level today, this will indicate a considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above a 1.2318 level, this will denote a high bullish strength. Alternatively, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.2230, and SELL position at 1.2288; in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2260.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for July 27, 2012

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On May 15, the GBP/USD pair managed to break down the lower limit of the bullish BLUE channel depicted on the chart. Since then, the pair has been moving within the triangle pattern after having a quick bearish swing between 1.6300 and 1.5260.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair found significant support at the lower limit of the triangle pattern around 1.5460 which pushed the pair to the upside for about 260 pips in one day.
Price level 1.5460 not only corresponds to the lower limit of the triangle but also to the backside of the broken downtrend line depicted on the chart as well.
The GBP/USD pair has a strong long-term Resistance zone between 1.5773-1.5840 where daily price action should be watched for valid long-term positions to be taken.
The current price level of 1.5730 corresponding to the upper limit of the symmetrical triangle should constitute an intraday Resistance for the pair even on the short-term. However, breakthrough above it opens the way towards the stronger resistance zone 1.5773-1.5840.
For risky traders, an intraday SELL position can be taken at 1.5730 with SL as 4H closure above 1.5780 with TP at 1.5700, 1.5666 then 1.5630.

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-20

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 96.10 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 95.60.
Technical indicators provide buy-signals and until the support is not broken the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 96.10 with the 1st objective at 96.70 and then at 96.90. A break through 95.90 will alter this scenario.

AUD/USD Wave Analysis July 19, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
The AUD/USD pair was trading in a strong upward move for the last few weeks developing impulsive wave (3) (coloured green). Yesterday during the European session we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.0287 level where this currency pair found support and the price started pushing higher. Therefore, during the New York session we could see a strong ascending move that brought the AUD/USD pair to the new high around 1.0375 level. Today this currency pair continued trading in a bullish mood and we are expecting to see the price above 1.0500 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0100-1.0248-1.0204) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0445 (161.8% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0502(200% of wave 1). Support at 1.0330 point can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0256 (S2) 1.0289 (S1) 1.0309 (PP) 1.0341 (R1) 1.0374 (R2) 1.0394 (R3) 1.0426
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0390 with Stop Loss 1.0330 Take Profit 1 at 1.0445 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0502 are recommended.

EUR/USD Intraday Wave Analysis July 18, 2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday we performed a long term analysis for the EUR/USD pair and today we want to examine a smaller time frame for intraday traders. Yesterday during the European session we could observe an ascending movement towards the 1.2315 level and we can consider this move as the end of the C wave (coloured blue). Therefore, during the early New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and the price rapidly fell to the new daily low of 1.2188 (end of the D wave) where the EUR/USD pair found support and price reached 1.2300 level at the end of the NY session. At the moment we could observe the price trading around 1.2256 level and we are expecting to see it above 1.2350 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave E retraces minimum 100% of the wave C, we can define the potential targets by measuring C wave with Take Profit 1 at 1.2326 (100% of wave C) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2363 (127.2% of wave C). Support at 1.2210 point can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Building Permits, Housing Starts, Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, Crude Oil Inventories and Beige Book data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2138 (S2) 1.2187 (S1) 1.2217 (PP) 1.2266 (R1) 1.2315 (R2) 1.2345 (R3) 1.2394
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2250 with Stop Loss 1.2210, Take Profit 1 at 1.2326 and Take Profit 2 at 1.2363 are recommended.

GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5704 for July 17, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The British pound gain strength amid a downward correction, currently its short-term uptrend is not in danger. The weekly resistance level 1.5704, which is the key to the pair, has a clear path and can continue its way to the south. We believe that this will happen only when it has resolved the major part of the problems within the European Union. Taking into account that gloomy future, we recommend selling at the level of 1.5704 with targets at 1.5520.
On the other hand, a return to the weekly pivot line recommend buying at this level the pair, again sought to break the 1.57.
The trend indicator shows bullish strength.



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EUR/JPY Pullback Underway - Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations 2012-07-16

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
Looking at the wave structure above, we can see that the pullback of the wave 4 seems to be underway now. Minimum expectations are towards 98.00/98.50, which is also the convergence point of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and past support turned resistance. It is recommended to stay long with a strict stop, this pullback has just started.
Trading Recommendations:
1. Aggressive strategy: stay long from last Friday recommendations, Stop at 95.00, Target 98.50.
2. Conservative approach: wait to sell at 98.50 level for a down target below 93.00
Good Luck!

Gold Not Giving Up On Lat Weeks Support at 1548/49 Levels. 2012-07-13

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
The overall structure remains unchanged as discussed yesterday, while short term outlook may change. The last week intermediary support at 1548/49 levels, depicted as S1 above, is not giving in to the bears as yet. That leaves us with a possibility of a corrective rally that may exceed resistance at 1630.00 levels. Until and unless the support region of 1550/40 levels is not broken convincingly, don’t be surprised if bulls take charge above 1630.00 levels in the coming sessions.
Trading Recommendations:
1. Cover short positions if taken yesterday.
2. Aggressive strategy would be to buy with stop at 1545.00, target at 1660/70 levels.
3. Conservative strategy would be flat for now. Trade on a breakdown of 1540.oo levels.

Eur/Jpy Bears Targetting at 93.50/94.00 Region - Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations 2012-07-12

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
As depicted above, the pullback towards the 101.50 level last month can be considered as Wave 4. Wave 5 is under way now and the bears should be targetting at the 93.50/94.00 levels as downside minimum projections. Near term support is cast by the 96.00 levels while immediate resistance comes in at the 98.50/60 levels. We expect a pullbacks to be well capped below this resistance level now.

Trading Recommendations:
Sell intraday rallies towards 98.00/ 98.50 levels, Stop at the 101.30 level, Target - 93.50

EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for July 10 - 2012

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Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

Support Resistance
1: 97.39 1: 98.19
2: 97.02 2: 98.69
3: 95.65 3: 99.09

Technical Overview:
The ongoing blue wave iv has for now remained below the resistance at 98.30. It is a little to early to say that blue wave iv is done with, but we should expect this blue wave iv being a shallow correction and should take the shape of a flat correction or a triangle, the reason for this is, that blue wave ii corrected 61.8% of blue wave i and Elliott Alternations principle tells us, that a sharp simple correction as wave ii should be followed by a shallow but more complex correction in wave iv. Once blue wave iv is over we should see a decline towards the ideal target near 94.58 in blue wave v.

Trading Recommendation:
You should be short from 99.55 with stop at break-even and take profit at 95.85. If you are not short already you should short a test into the 98.23 - 98.30 area with the same stop and take profit levels.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-09

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Gold is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 1,576 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 1,540.
Technical indicators provide buy-signals and approaching oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1,576 with the 1st objective at 1,590 and then at 1,590. A break through 1,573 will alter this scenario.