AUD/USD is now moving within wave A of medium term downtrend that started from 1.0386 (colored light green in the chart), and now may be coming to an end, since the price is close to its base 1.0386. On smaller scale there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), with subwave B still developing from 1.0145. If the price breaks above 1.0386 this wave will become subwave A (instead of B in the downtrend).Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0044-1.0386-1.0145, 1.0145-1.0351-1.0262, 1.0262-1.0377-1.0289.
Resistances:
- 1.0360 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0389 = COP
- 1.0404 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0468 = OP
- 1.0475 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0487 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements 1.0145-1.0377, and expansions off 1.0386-1.0145-1.0377, 1.0377-1.0289-1.0345.
Supports:
- 1.0291 = COP
- 1.0288 = .382 retracement
- 1.0261-57 = confluence area of .50 ret and OP
- 1.0234-28 = confluence area of .618 ret and COP
- 1.0203 = XOP
.
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is moving down (until 1.0386 is broken to the upside), therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current), watch for entries short at or near the indicated resistances.
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