AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for April 30, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the AUD/USD pair was developing an impulsive wave 3 (coloured pink). Presently we can observe the end of the 3 wave and start of the corrective wave 4 (coloured pink). During the Friday's European session we could observe the aggressive ascending movement towards the 1.0430 level. Therefore during the New York session the AUD/USD pair continues to be traded within a bullish mood. At the end of the New York session we could observe the price reaching 4 weeks high at 1.0473 level. We can consider this move as the end of the wave 3 (coloured pink). Today during the Asian session the price has started moving in a bearish mood and price is currently testing 1.0440 support level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 50% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0305-1.0482) and Take Profit at 1.0394 (50% of wave 3). For Stop Loss the resistance level at 1.0470 can be used. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m and Chicago PMI that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0311 (S2) 1.0358 (S1) 1.0386 (PP) 1.0432 (R1) 1.0479 (R2) 1.0507 (R3) 1.0553
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0435 with Stop Loss at 1.0470 and Take Profit at 1.395 are recommended.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-04-27

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At the moment the spot rate is testing the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel in 1.6150 and is expected to rebound. However, a breakdown of these levels will lead to a return to its lower limit in 1.6120.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but as the support level is not broken, the rebound is most likely to take place. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level 1.6150 with a 1st objectives seen at 1.6210 and 1.6230 levels. In case the level 1.6120 is passed through, the prospect scenario will be cancelled.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-04-26

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The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 1.6180 and seems to initiate a decline. However a break of these levels will release good potential and initiate a more violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators provide signals to buyers but are approaching the overbuy zone suggesting a decline. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events the market will show bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken its resistance at 1.6180 with the 1st objective of 1.6240, and then of 1.6260. A break through 1.6160 will change the plan.

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 25, 2012

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave A of medium term uptrend from 127.04 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (red in the chart), and potential impulse subwave C is developing from 130.14.
Now the immediate resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 127.04-131.73-130.14, and 130.14-131.19-130.63.
Resistances:
- 131.68 = objective point (OP)
- 132.33 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 133.04 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 133.38 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
IF the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 127.04-131.73.
Supports:
- 129.94 = .382 retracement
- 129.38 = .50 ret
- 128.83 = .618 ret


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Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Count and Fibonacci Levels for April 24, 2012

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave A of the medium term uptrend from 127.04 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have two subwaves (red in the chart), and potential corrective subwave B developing from 131.73.
The downside targets are Fibonacci retracements of 127.04-131.73 and expansions of131.73-130.14-130.92.
Supports:
- 129.94 = .382 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 129.38-33 = .50 ret and objective point (OP)
- 128.83 = .618 ret
- 128.35 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions of 127.04-131.73-130.14.
Resistances:
- 133.04 = COP
- 134.83 = OP


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Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

USD/CAD Survey according to the Point and Figure Charting for April 23, 2012

The USD/CAD pair continues the ascending movement within the correction.
Pat the moment the main target for purchasers is seen at the resistance level 0.998 where the main line of the descending trend is drawn. In case it has been overcome, the tendency will change to uprising providing the strong signal for Buy-deals.
The point 0.987 is considered as a support level. If it has been passed through, the strong signal for Sell-deals will be provided towards the main tendency opening the way to the point 0.980.
Relative strength index is located in the O column indicating the purchasers force.
As long as the main tendency remains downward, today it is recommended to sell the pair after the breakdown of the support level 0.987.


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GBP/USD Wave Analysis for April 20, 2012

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Wave marking analysis:
Yesterday during the Asian session the GBP/USD pair has failed to test the point 1.6060 and remained within the quite narrow range. Considering that the pair has developed the inner wave dimension of the ascending part of the trend beginning since April 16, the price will probably drop to the point 1.5950. At the same time concerning the length of the wave 1 and 3 it is necessary to keep in mind that the wave 5 in 3 will be more complicated and quotes will reach the measured targets located in the area of figure 61.

Targets for the wave 3 option:
1.6095 – 161.8% according to Fibonacci
Targets for the wave 4 option:
1.5979 – 38.2% according to Fibonacci
1.5949 – 50.0% according to Fibonacci
1.5918 – 61.8% according to Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment the wave marking has been changed: presently the current part of the trend can be attributed to the new 5-wave structure. Also the wave 3 is probably forming. The intermediary targets for this wave is seen at the 1.6095 Fibonacci level which is equal to 161.8% of Fibonacci. If the current wave marking is true, when the wave 3 has been developed (MACD divergence/convergence will indicate the end of this wave), the quotes are likely to decline within the wave 4 with 1.5979, 1.5949 and 1.5918 seen as targets.

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 19, 2012

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave A of medium term uptrend from 127.04 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have five subwaves (orange red in the chart), and impulse subwave 5 is developing from 129.05.
Now the targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 133.32-127.04, and expansions off 127.51-129.66-129.05, 129.05-130.38-130.03.
Resistances:
- 130.85 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.92 = .618 ret
- 131.20 = objective point (OP)
- 131.36 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 127.04 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.


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Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for April 18, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading within the upward movement. During the Asian session we could observe the descending movement towards the point 1.0304. We can consider this move as the end of the wave 2 (coloured blue). The AUD/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and we can observe the strong bullish mood during the European and New York sessions towards the 1.0417 level. We can consider this move as end of wave 1 (coloured pink) of the bigger wave 3 (coloured blue).Today during the Asian market the AUD/USD pair start pushing in a downward move to the 1.0370 level and we expect to see the price back to 1.0400 level today. Presently we can observe the end of the wave 2 (coloured pink), so we can enter Long for 3 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0304-1.0417-1.0348); the First Take Profit at 1.0469 (100% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0540 (161.8% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 1.0304. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Crude Oil Inventories that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0256 (S2) 1.0300 (S1) 1.0326 (PP) 1.0370 (R1) 1.0414 (R2) 1.0440 (R3) 1.0484
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0380 with Stop Loss at 1.0304, Take Profit 1 at 1.0469 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0540 are recommended.

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 17, 2012

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend from 133.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have five subwaves (royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave 5 is developing from 129.51. Within this wave there are two subwaves (red in the chart), and potential corrective subwave B is developing from 127.04.
The immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 129.51-127.04.
Resistances:
- 127.98 = .382 retracement
- 128.28 = .50 ret
- 128.57 = .618 ret
If the downtrend resumes and the price breaks below 127.04, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 133.42-129.94-133.32, 133.32-130.08-133.19, 133.19-127.82-129.51, 129.51-127.07-128.03.
Supports:
- 126.50 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 126.19 = COP
- 125.56 = objective point (OP)


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Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (20-25 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (55-70 pips above the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 16, 2012

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From 1.5600 to 1.6060 the GBP/USD pair was considered as bullish as it was moving within the depicted bullish channel which has been broken through during the first week of April. Thus the character of the GBP/USD pair was changed into bearish.
The GBP/USD pair showed the massive bearish reaction after testing the 1.6060 level and reached the point 1.5830, which is a support level on the 4H chart (50% Fibonacci level).
However, the GBP/USD pair showed the massive bearish reaction that was able to break down the lower limit of the depicted channel. We expected bullish strength at 1.5830 to come into the market towards 1.5960 - 1.5990, hence as expected, 1.5830 constituted a solid short-term BUY entry towards 1.5945-1.5970.
Proceeding from the previous price action to the current price zone 1.5830-1.6060 we can see that the GBP/USD pair is probably forming a H&S reversal pattern with neckline at 1.5830 and the right shoulder that is expected to be placed around 1.5970-1.5990 which constituted a valid low/risk SELL entry which was triggered last week with initial profit untill now.
Breakdown of 1.5830 will confirm the reversal pattern allowing the GBP/USD to reach 1.5770 then 1.5650.
Some profits should be taken to avoid possible bullish reversal at the current prices & SL can be lowered to 5905 to offside some risk of the ongoing trade.

GBP/CHF Turns Around from 1.4620. Remain Short Again 2012-04-13

Technical Outlook:
It is necessary to consider that that more than 50% of highs and lows will be tested. GBP/CHF is considered as classic example. The bulls indicated the doors again (for the 4th time) remaining quite weak at 1.4620 level yesterday. This movement confirms the suggestion that bears are expected to break through in the nearest future as it is shown on the chart below. It is recommended to remain short; major resistance are located at 1.4790 levels.



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Chart Setup:
The above charts clearly show that the Right Shoulder has been tested time remaining still relevant. Furthermore yesterday was a full dark cover cloud or The Engulfing Bearish signal as one seen before. there is no doubt that it is recommended to remain short, as breakdown is expected at the moment. The downside targets are seen at 1.3950 levels and further at 1.3790 levels for the nearest future.
Trade Recommendations: No Change
Sell @ 1.4520/40, Stop @ 1.4790, Target1 @ 1.3950, Target2 @ 1.3790.

GBP/CHF - Testing 1.4620 Again - Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations 2012-04-12

Technical Outlook:
“Trading is a gram of patience”, they say, and there is no better example than GBP/CHF. Bulls are determined to give one more try to get past resistance of 1.4620/30 levels. Please remember, our major trend defining resistance is 1.4790. Till the time prices are below that, it is suggested to sell all intraday rallies. Next 2 trading sessions are critical and would be trend setters. We are still awaiting a clear breakout.



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Chart Setup:
As indicated above, we are still optimistic that the defined intermediary resistance at 1.4620/30 and Daily chart resistance at 1.4790 will hold good. Bulls are attempting again to test 1.4620 today. Bears need to worry only if prices break 1.4790, we shall reverse our trading direction only after that. Lets trade in accord to the facts… prices are being tested, not broken yet. We need to stick to our Trade Plan for now. Expect bears to regain control soon. Our measured downside projections are 1.3950. A clear break and sustained upside to 1.4790 will change our Trade Plan.
Bottom Line: Lower.
Trade Recommendations: Issued last week.
Sell @ 1.4520/40, Stop @ 1.4790, Target 1 @ 1.3950, Target 2 @ 1.3790

GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Count and Fibonacci Levels for April 11, 2012

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave C of medium term downtrend from 133.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (royal blue in the chart), A, B, and impulse subwave C that is developing from 133.19. Within this wave there are three subwaves (magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 130.81. On still smaller level there are A, B and C waves within it (red in the chart), and subwave C is developing from 130.17.
Now the targets below are Fibonacci expansions off 133.42-129.94-133.32, 133.32-130.08-133.19, 133.19-129.45-130.81, 130.81-128.77-130.17.
Supports:
- 127.69 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 127.07 = objective point (OP)
- 126.87 = XOP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements 130.81-127.82.
Resistances:
- 128.96 = .382 retracement
- 129.32 = .50 ret
- 129.67 = .618 ret


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Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving downwards, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (current prices). Consider the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 10, 2012

AUD/USD is developing potential corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0856. Within this wave there are three subwaves (light green in the chart), subwave C is developing from 1.0636. Within this wave we have A-B-C cycle that is developing now (royal blue in the chart), subwave C started at 1.0465. Within the latter we have two subwaves (magenta in the chart), and potential corrective subwave B is developing from 1.0243. It also contains subwaves A-B-C (red in the chart), and C is developing from 1.0257.
Now the targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0465-1.0243, and expansions off 1.0243-1.0336-1.0257, 1.0257-1.0331-1.0294.
Resistances:
- 1.0350-54 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .50 retracement
- 1.0368 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0380 = .618 ret
- 1.0407 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0414 = XOP
The immediate supports are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9861-1.0856, and expansions off 1.0856-1.0423-1.0636, 1.0636-1.0304-1.0465.
Supports:
- 1.0241 = .618 retracement
- 1.0203 = OP


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Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (35-45 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

GBP/CHF Standing right at Crossroads 2012-04-09

Technical Outlook:
GBP/CHF is still locked in consolidation and is likely to break through. Strong resistance is seen at 1.4790 level while the intermediary high is located at 1.4620/30 levels. As it is shown in the charts below prices have tested the previous highs at 1.4620 levels on Friday providing an Evening Star; the bearish signal indicates Sell-deals.From the structural point of view we recommend to remain short with Stop Loss at 1.4790 levels. When prices are lower than 1.4790, the pair will be likely to break through 1.42 level. Please, consider the recommendations below:



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Chart Setup and Trade Recommendations:
Since last week the conventional Head and Shoulder setup has been forming. At the moment price is seems to be carving out a right shoulder around 1.4550-1.4520 levels,corrsponding to Fibonacci resistance zone of Down AB depicrted on chart. Head and Shoulder setups need some time to materialize, but whether it is true or not, the breakouts are also very powerful and steep. We are expecting prices to breakdown to 1.3790 levels on the downsde. This bearish outlook is likely to take place if prices are below 1.4790. At the moment the level 1.4620 is being tested. Bottom line: Lower.
Trade Recommendations: Issued earlier on April 04.
Sell @ 1.4520/40, Stop @ 1.4790, Target1 @ 1.3940, Target2 @ 1.3790. The trade is expected to materialize this week.

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for April 5, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading within downward movement,during the early Asian session we could observe price reaching 1.0262 level. We can consider this move as 3 wave of the bigger C wave. Therefore during the European session this major pair continued to move in a bearish mood, the wave 5 of C wave was finished at the end of EU session at 1.0243 resistance level. Today we can see the beginning of 1 wave (coloured blue), Presently we can see the end of the wave 1 and we can expect the price to test 1.0275 level before we can see price higher again in the 3 of 1 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0242-1.0318-1.0275); the First Take Profit at 1.0350 (100% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0395 (161.8% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use end of C wave at 1.0242. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Unemployment Claims that can affect the rate of the pair

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0189 (S2) 1.0225 (S1) 1.0247 (PP) 1.0283 (R1) 1.0319 (R2) 1.0341 (R3) 1.0377
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0275 with Stop Loss at 1.0242,Take Profit 1 at 1.0350 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0395 are recommended.

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 4, 2012

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B of medium term uptrend from 133.42 (royal blue in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (magenta in the chart), A, B, and potential impulse subwave C that is developing from 133.32. Within this wave there are three subwaves (red in the chart), and potential impulse subwave C is developing from 133.19. On still smaller level there are A, B, and potential C waves within it (orange red in the chart).
Now the targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 126.48-133.42, and expansions off 133.42-129.94-133.32, 133.32-130.08-133.19, 133.19-130.71-131.92.
Supports:
- 130.39 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 129.95-84 = confluence area of two objective points (OP) and .50 retracement
- 129.44 = OP
- 129.13 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 126.48-133.42-129.94, 129.94-133.32-130.08, 130.08-133.19-130.71.
Resistances:
- 132.63 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 133.82 = OP
- 134.23 = COP


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Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (50-65 pips above the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 3, 2012

AUD/USD is developing potential corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0856. Within this wave there are three subwaves (royal blue in the chart), that may form A-B-C cycle, and corrective wave A (of new cycle) is developing against the downtrend from 1.0304. Within this wave we have subwaves A, B, and C (red in the chart) that is developing from 1.0366. Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0856-1.0304, 1.0636-1.0304, and expansions off 1.0304-1.0453-1.0366.
Resistances:
- 1.0470 = .50 retracement
- 1.0509-15 = confluence area of .618 ret, .382 ret and objective point (OP)
- 1.0580 = .50 ret
- 1.0607 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9861-1.0856, and expansions off 1.0856-1.0423-1.0636.
Supports:
- 1.0241 = .618 retracement
- 1.0203 = OP


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Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (25-30 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (55-70 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

GBP/USD Weekly Technical Levels for April 2 - 6, 2012

Weekly Technical Levels:

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Tip (s):

R3 and S3 are clear indicators of the maximum range for the period of extreme volatility. Nevertheless, it is still possible to break them through.
Pivot lines work well at sideways markets, as prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines.
Within a strong trend the price will be located below the pivot point line and will continue its movement.
In case of the breaking news release that may influence the market, the price may go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Observation (s):

• If the trend goes upwards, then the strength of the currency will be defined as: GBP is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
• Most of the traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine the accurate psychological support and resistance levels.