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Monday, February 28, 2011

Fundamental Analysis, February 28, 2011

The Department the of Commerce the United States, announced yesterday that the United States economy grew in the fourth quarter of 2010 by a lower monthly rate than predicted by early estimates and economists’ predictions, with America's GDP expanding in the fourth quarter by an annualized rate of 2.8%, as opposed to the 3.2% rate predicted last months. We note that through 2010 the world's largest economy grew by 2.8% - the highest growth rate in five years – after a 2.6% decline in the GDP for 2009.


Private consumption in the United States grew by 4.1% in the fourth quarter, the sharpest rise in five years. That said, the climb was slightly lower than the 4.2% climb predicted by economists. The PCE-based consumer price index grew at an annualized rate of 0.5% when discounting the prices of energy and food.
Further in the American macroeconomic sector, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose in February to a level of 77.5 points, its highest level since January 2008, as compared to the previous reading of 74.2 points. Analysts' prediction was of a more moderate climb to a level of 75.4 points.


http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/24031/?x=OUE

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Fundamental Analysis, February 24, 2011

Trade in the Asian stock markets have been conducted this morning at a mixed trend with a tendency for index declines, this after the Asian stock markets have already lost about 2.5% in the past few days, due to concerns of a sharp rise in oil prices and continued escalation in the unrest in the Arab world. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange drops 0.9%, the Seoul stock exchange drops by 0.6%, the Sydney stock exchange drops by 0.7%, and only the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges record slight climbs of 0.2%.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, the housing market is beginning to show signs of recovery after the rate of housing sales recorded an ascent yesterday, reaching an annualized rate of 5.36 million sales per year in January, above analysts' prediction of an annualized rate of 5.22 million sales and as compared rate of 5.2 million in the parralel period of 2010, as reported by America's NAR.

The price of crude oil crossed yesterday the bar of 100 dollars per barrel for the first time since 2008, due to the escalation of the unrest in Libya and the insistence of the country's leader, Muammar Quaddhafi, to continue fighting protestors demanding his removal. Senior economists estimate that, should the production of oil in Libya and Algeria suffer, the price of oil is likely to leap to 200 United States dollars per barrel or higher.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/23843/?x=OUE

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

USD/CAD technical analysis for February 23, 2011

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9780, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0057, 1.0212


On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair is bouncing off after it could not breal the support level 0.9820-0.9830. Nevertheless, the currency pair will probably find a resistance level near parity.
As mentioned before, break of this support level might provoke the USD/CAD to test the support level 0.9780 with further target at 0.9711.
However, if the support level 0.9930 is not broken, this might result in advance of the US dollar. If the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/23705/?x=OUE

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Fundamental Analysis, February 22, 2011

Europe's stock markets, which completed a third weekly rise in a row, have closed yesterday on index declines on the background of concerns that an escalation of the conflicts in the Arab world will lead to continued growth in oil prices and inflation and hurt global economic growth. By the end of yesterday's trading day, the London Stock Exchange locked at a 1.1% decline, while the Paris and Frankfurt exchanges dropped by 1.4% each.


A magnitude 6.3 earthquake had struck near Christchurch, on New Zealand’s southern island. As a consequence of the event, the New Zealand stock exchange dives by 1.4%, the New Zealand dollar weakens by 0.8% against the Dollar to a level of 0.75 for one New Zealand dollar.

Analysts warn that expanding of the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa – the area where over a third of the global oil production is concentrated – may cause a leap in oil prices that will drag the global economy into a renewed recession.

On the background of these events, as well as the strengthening political tensions in Libya, the price of gold crossed the level of 1,400 United States dollars for one ounce of gold, the price of silver rose by over 4% , reaching a 30-year high, while the price of crude oil leaped up by more than 7%, to a level of 93.0 United States dollars for one barrel of oil on the background of concerns of a possible disruption of the global oil supply.


http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/23683/?x=OUE

Monday, February 21, 2011

USD/CAD technical analysis for February 21, 2011

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9780, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0057, 1.0212



On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has found a strong resistance near 0.9830-0.9820, to rebound up further. Nevertheless, the currency pair has still been trading in a downtrend.
Break of this support level might provoke the USD/CAD to test the support level 0.9780 with further target at 0.9711.
However, if the support level 0.9930 is not broken, this might result in advance of the US dollar. If the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/23531/?x=OUE

Friday, February 18, 2011

USD/CAD technical analysis for February 18, 2011

Support levels: 0.9830, 0.9780, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0057, 1.0212




On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair is testing again the support level 0.9830. Recently the currency pair has been trading between 0.9830 and 0.9900, at the same time the interest to purchase is strong near the upper and the lower limits of this range.
Break of the upper limit might provoke the dollar to test the support level 0.9780 with further target at 0.9711.
However, if the support level 0.9930 is not broken, this might result in advance of the US dollar. If the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.



http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/23449/?x=OUE

Thursday, February 17, 2011

USD/CAD technical analysis for February 17, 2011

Support levels: 0.9830,0.9780, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0057, 1.0212


On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair is demonstrating downside movement with a target at 0.9830. Nevertheless, the currency pair will probably continue trading between 0.9830 and 0.9900, at the same time the interest to purchase will be strong near the upper and the lower limits of this range.
Break of the upper limit might cause some purchases and provoke a growth to 0.9940, while break of the lower limit will probably make the dollar test the support level 0.9780.
In general, technical factors help the USD/CAD pair keep in the trading range after recent rebound off the 0.9850 level.
However, if the support level 0.9930 is not broken, this might result in advance of the US dollar. If the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/23373/?x=OUE

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

USD/CAD technical analysis for February 16, 2011 2011-02-16

Support levels: 0.9830, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0057, 1.0212


On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair is bouncing off after it could not break the 0.9850 level.
In general, technical factors help the USD/CAD pair keep in the trading range after recent rebound off the 0.9850 level.
As mentioned before, if the downside movement remains, break of the 0.9830 support level will target the pair to 0.9711. In this case the viewpoint to the pair will become bearish.
However, if this level is not broken, this might result in advance of the US dollar. If the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/23287/?x=OUE

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Fundamental Analysis, February 15, 2011 2011-02-15

According to the bank's announcement, the Japanese economy is gradually leaving its state of economic slowdown. The bank left the interest rate at its zero level, and intends to continue with its five-trillion asset purchase.

In China, the consumer price index rose by 4.9% in January as compared to the same months in 2010. The index growth was slower than predicted by analysts, and it arrived after a 4.6% growth in December.

The monthly Wall Street Journal economists' poll states that the U.S. Economy is expected to grow this year at the fastest rate since 2003 due to increased business and consumer expenditures. The 51 economists that participated in the polling estimated, on average, that the U.S. GDP will be larger in the fourth quarter of 2011 than it was at the same time last year.

In the macroeconomic sphere, later on we expect the publishing of retail sales data for January, which is expected to point to a 0.5% growth. In parallel, the Empire state index for the manufacturing sector in the New York area is expected to show a 15-point reading for February as compared to last month's 12-point reading. Furthermore, we expect the publishing of import and export data, the international market budget of the Treasury, the stock report and the housing market index which will provide another indication of the state of the American real estate market.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/23251/?x=OUE

Monday, February 14, 2011

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 14, 2011

The GBP/JPY is moving in medium term uptrend and is now developing corrective subwave B (colored magenta) within impulse wave C (colored royal blue) of the medium term uptrend. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 131.62-134.31, 132.54-134.31, and expansions off 134.31-133.31-133.94.

Supports:

- 133.32-28-22 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP), .382 and .618 retracements
- 132.97-94 = confluence area of .50 ret and objective point (OP)
- 132.65 = .618 ret
- 132.32 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the uptrend resumes the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-133.31-131.62, 131.62-134.31-133.31.

Resistances:

- 134.85 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 134.97 = COP
- 135.18 = objective point (OP)

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/23113/?x=OUE

Friday, February 11, 2011

USD/CAD technical analysis for February 11, 2011 2011-02-11

Support levels: 0.9830, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0057, 1.0212, 1.0290


On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair is continuing to advance to the upper limit of the downtrend after it broke the resistance level 0.9942. However, it is expected that the USD/CAD pair will most likely find a strong resistance level near 1.0000 and trade within the price range near that level.
In general the pair is still in the downtrend. As mentioned before, if the downside movement remains, break of the 0.9830 support level will target the pair to 0.9711. In this case the viewpoint to the pair will become bearish.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/23015/?x=OUE

Thursday, February 10, 2011

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USD/CAD technical analysis for February 10, 2011 2011-02-10

Support levels: 0.9830, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0057, 1.0212, 1.0290


On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair is consolidating after it broke the resistance level 0.9942. It is expected that the USD/CAD pair will most likely trade within the price range near the parity.
In general the pair is still in the downtrend. As mentioned before, if the downside movement remains, break of the 0.9830 support level will target the pair to 0.9711. In this case the viewpoint to the pair will become bearish.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/22919/?x=OUE

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

USD/CAD technical analysis for February 9, 2011 2011-02-09

Support levels: 0.9830, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 0.9942, 1.0057, 1.0212


On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has broken the resistance level 0.9942 amid a rollback off the 32-month low. However, trading range of this pair might stay limited amid few publications due this week.
As mentioned before, if the downside movement remains, break of the 0.9830 support level will target the pair to 0.9711. In this case the viewpoint to the pair will become bearish.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.





Tuesday, February 8, 2011

USD/CAD Bullish Outlook ,February 08, 2011 (Daily Strategy) 2011-02-08

USD/CAD


The United States dollar - canadian dollar - pair in the last low that has formed in candles made an hour a pattern, called shoulder head shoulder, from our perspective is expected to break the weekly pivot at 0.9920 would confirm our forecast upward and this would lead us towards the goal of 1.0008 around the weekly trend line.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/22821/?x=OUE

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

USD/CAD technical analysis for February 2, 2011 2011-02-02

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0057, 1.0050, 1.0212



On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has successfully broken the support level 0.9910, to rebound further. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is still neutral. As noted earlier, break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/22425/?x=OUE

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

USD/CAD technical analysis for February 1, 2011 2011-02-01

Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9820, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0026, 1.0050, 1.0212


On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has made a sharp rebound up, but could not close above the resistance level 1.0026. The viewpoint to the pair is still neutral.
As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0026 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/22367/?x=OUE