GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-28

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Gold tested yesterday the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel, but traders took some profits due to bad news at the end of the week with the related speech of the President of the Federal Reserve. After that it declined yesterday and approached the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1,649 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will release a large potential and will enable to reach the lower limit of its channel at 1,580.
Technical indicators provide sell signal and evolve in overbuy zone supporting the hypothesis of a decline. Until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
As gold tests its intermediate support, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we suggest a buy on the level of 1,649 with the 1st objective at 1,660 and then at 1,665. A breakthrough of 1,646 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” which means selling of the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1,649 with the 1st objective at 1,638 and then at 1,635. A breakthrough of 1,652 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-24

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Gold broke the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel leading to acceleration to the upper limit of its channel at 1,674 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will allow it to release a large potential and initiate a more violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signals and evolve in overbuy zone supporting the hypothesis of a decline. Until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
As gold tests the upper limit of its channel, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell at the level of 1,674 with the 1st objective at 1,665 and then at 1,660. A breakthrough of 1,677 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop”. We recommend to buy the gold as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,674 with the 1st objective at 1,685 and then at 1,688. A breakthrough of 1,671 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

GBP/USD Strong Support 1.5784 - For August 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The British pound had a bullish session yesterday, exceeding strong resistance of 1.5766 and hitting above the 200 day moving average (blue). This indicates a good bullish momentum within the pair, we note that the pair is losing strength and is possible that downward correction there expects the former resistance, but now serves as support at the level of 1.5784 ( fractal daily), increasing the likelihood of a strong support.
Therefore, we recommend buying 1.5784 with targets at 1.5950. Fractal next day.



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Gerardo Porras is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-22

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As we expected yesterday, the spot rate broke the upper limit of its short term bearish channel at 98.40 and reached the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 99.20 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will release good potential and will initiate a more violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signal and approach overbuy zone supporting a decline. Until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Furthermore, the upper band strengthens the upper limit of its channel supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure
As the spot rate tests its resistance, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell on the level of 99.20 with the 1st objective at 98.60 and then at 98.40. A breakthrough 99.40 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop”. We recommend to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 99.20 with the 1st objective at 99.80 and then at 100.00. A breakthrough 98.90 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

AUD/CAD Wave Analysis for August 21,2012

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AUD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last few weeks the AUD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move, developing corrective (A) wave (coloured green) of the bigger (2) wave (coloured orange). Last Friday the AUD/USD pair finished (A) wave, and we could observe the price higher this week when developing the (B) wave starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave B retraces 61.8% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0593-1.0292), with Take Profit 1 at 1.0445(50% of wave A), and Take Profit 2 at 1.0481 (61.8% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use the end of the A wave at 1.0292 level as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0271 (S2) 1.0290 (S1) 1.0301 (PP) 1.0319 (R1) 1.0338 (R2) 1.0349 (R3) 1.0367
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0370 with Stop Loss 1.0292, Take Profit 1 1.0445 and Take Profit 2 1.0481 are recommended.
Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

GBP/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for August 20 - 24, 2012

Weekly Technical Levels:

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Tip (s):

•R3 and S3 are regarded as clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through.
•Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines.
•Within a strong trend the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and will continue the movement.
•In case of the breaking news release which may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Observation (s):

• If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
• Fibonacci retracement uses to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance, and playing according to in this kind of period.
• Fibonacci in a range trader (it is looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period you'll go sure for losing your profit.
• Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
• Usually the market has a high volatile, if the last day had a huge volatility.

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.
Mourad El Keddani is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

GBP/JPY Wave Analysis for August 16,2012

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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave
For the last few days the GBP/JPY pair was trading in an upward move, developing impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe an ascending movement towards the 124.93 level where this exotic currency found resistance. Therefore, during the early New York session the GBP/JPY pair did not manage to hold this level and the price slipped towards the 123.30 level (new daily low). At the moment the price is trading around 124.20 level and we are expecting to see it around 125.20 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (121.07-123.25-131.78) with Take Profit at 125.22 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support point at 123.60 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the GBP Retail Sales m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 122.97 (S2) 123.26 (S1) 123.43 (PP) 123.71 (R1) 124.00 (R2) 124.17 (R3) 124.45
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 124.40 with Stop Loss 123.60 and Take Profit 125.22 are recommended.
Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 15,2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move, developing corrective wave (2) (coloured purple) of the bigger 3 (coloured blue). During the Asian and early European sessions we could observe a strong ascending movement towards the 1.2385 level and we can consider this move as the end of the (1) wave (coloured purple). Therefore, during the second half of the EU session the EUR/USD did not manage to hold this level and the price slipped towards the 1.2316 level. At the moment we can observe the price trading in a sideways move and we are expecting to see it higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2240-1.2385-1.2316) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2460 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2550 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.2240 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m and Crude Oil Inventories data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2272 (S2) 1.2298 (S1) 1.2315 (PP) 1.2341 (R1) 1.2367 (R2) 1.2384 (R3) 1.2410
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2345 with Stop Loss 1.2240, Take Profit 1 1.2460, and Take Profit 2 1.2550 are recommended.
Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-14

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Gold is actually testing the upper limit of its medium term triangle at 1,625 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels would free a large potential and initiate a violent bullish trend. In case of failure we will be able to delay the width of the base of the triangle at the breaking point to define the theoretical objective.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the resistance is not broken, the hypothesis of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility. Moreover, the superior band strengthens the upper limit of its channel suggesting a more violent movement in case of break.
We recommend to buy the gold as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,625 with the 1st objective at 1,636 and then at 1,640. A breakthrough 1,622 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 9, 2012

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The main tendency for the GBP/USD pair was bullish this week. As we see, the pair has been moving within three bullish channels which are depicted on the chart. However, the pair is showing some bullish weakness which is manifested in the recent overlapping swings that are taking place within the current Yellow channel.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair met the intraday Resistance Level of 1.5665 which expressed a significant bearish price action till now pushing the pair to the downside to test the lower limit of the Violet channel around price level of 1.5645. If this is broken, the pair will be able to resume its bearish movement towards 1.5600, 1.5545 then 1.5505.
The upper limit of the Yellow channel around 1.5690-1.5700 is considered as a strong intraday Resistance Level and a valid SELL entry with SL located above 1.5735.
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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-08

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Gold is approaching to the upper limit of its medium term triangle at 1,626 and seems to initiate decline. However, a break through this level will make it possible to get over the basis height of the triangle on its output.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Moreover, the superior band strengthens the upper limit of the triangle.
According to previous events, the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as gold breaks through its resistance of 1,626 with the 1st objective at 1,636 and then at 1,640. A breakthrough 1,623 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis for August 7 - 2012

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Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
S1: 96.70 R1: 97.26
S2: 96.36 R2: 97.80
S3: 96.01 R3: 98.16


Technical Overview:
We saw a perfect test of the 96.70 support yesterday, but we need a break above minor resistance at 97.26 to confirm that red wave ii is over and red wave iii has begun. The first target for red wave iii is at 100.30, but if it extends further, we should see a rally towards 101.52.
However, as long as minor resistance at 97.26 has not been broken, there is a possibility for a deeper correction in red wave ii towards 96.36 and even deeper to 96.01, which we must respect as just a normal correction of red wave i if seen.
Trading Recommendation:
You should be long EUR against JPY at 95.85 or from yesterday’s low at 96.70 with stop at 94.95. Lift this stop to 95.85 upon a break above 97.80. If you are not long EUR already, then buy a break above 97.26 with the same stop.

EUR/USD - Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points and signals- For 06 - 10 August , 2012

The Pivot Point (PPV) is used as support and resistance at the same time; it is the first level that we observe. For this week the pivot points (weekly and monthly) for EUR/USD are: 1.2307 weekly; 1.2342 monthly.
The euro is located above the weekly pivot point and bellow the Moving Average of 200 periods.
Accordingly, the pivot points signify the following.
A daily close above the pivot point of 1.2307 can increase the probability of a rise to 1.2578 weekly resistance (W_R2). On the other hand, a close below the weekly pivot point will initiate a decline which could continue until 1.2210 (W_S1); it is possible that at that level the pair may find a strong rebound, so we recommend buying on weekly support 1.2210 or above the weekly pivot point, (PV) with medium term targets until 1.2578(W_R2).

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.2752
Weekly - R2 = 1.2578
Weekly - R1 = 1.2481
Weekly Pivot = 1.2307
Weekly - S1 = 1.2210
Weekly - S2 = 1.2036
Weekly - S3 = 1.1939

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____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.3274
Monthly - R2 = 1.2977
Monthly - R1 = 1.2639
Monthly Pivot = 1.2342
Monthly - S1 = 1.2004
Monthly - S2 = 1.1707
Monthly - S3 = 1.1369


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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 2 - 2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move developing final C wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (2) (coloured green). During the Asian and European sessions this major pair was trading in a sideways move between 1.2285 and 1.2335 levels. Therefore, during the New York session the EUR/USD did not manage to hold this level and we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.2215 level. We can consider this move as the end of the corrective wave (2) (coloured green). At the moment we can observe the beginning of the impulsive wave (3) and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2365 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2041-1.2390-1.2215) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2565(100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2778 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk we can use Invalidation point at 1.2041 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference and U.S. Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders m/m, Natural Gas Storage data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2143 (S2) 1.2188 (S1) 1.2216 (PP) 1.2261 (R1) 1.2306 (R2) 1.2334 (R3) 1.2379
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2300 with Stop Loss 1.2040, Take Profit 1 1.2565 and Take Profit 2 at 1.2778 are recommended.

Silver Technical Levels and Trading Recommendatios for Aug 1 , 2012

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Overview


The H4 chart demonstrates today that silver takes a downward move after its rebound from the upper limit of the bullish channel and the Resistance level 28.40 and presently it is testing the Support level 27.85. If silver continues its bearish view and manages to break this Support level, it will provide a good opportunity to sell below the Support level as well as will make it possible to reach the Support level 27.50 as a level target. After that we should wait for breaking out of this Support level to continue the bearish move. In case silver is able to break the Support level 27.50 and close 4H below, we will get a bearish strength which will provide new sell signals and enable the Support level 27.20 as a level target.
On the other hand, if silver reverses its bearish move and takes an upward move after its rebound from the Support level 27.85, this will be a strong indicator for the bullish move after closing 4H above the Support level enabling the Resistance level 28.40 again. In this case, we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to continue the bullish view. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide sell signals, but as long as the Support level 27.85 is unbroken, the upward move is still expected and invalidating the downward movement. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and Support levels
R3(29.10)
R2(28.95)
R1(28.40)
S1(27.85)
S2(27.50)
S3(27.20)

Trading Recommendations
According to previous analysis, we recommend selling in case of closing 4H below the Support level 27.85 with TP1 27.40 and TP2 27.00; SL closing 4H above the Support level might be appropriate.