The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for May 24, 2011

Overview:
The euro is still observing the sell signal without a target level, formed yesterday, the MACD is also demonstrating a slight correction. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the downside movement is 1.4021 – the first support level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second support level at 1.3885. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.4160), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is ascending, thus indicating current correction movement, if it reverses down this will denote the end of the correction movement.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 1.4021 and further to 1.3885. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.4160 and stretched as the Kijun-sen declines. Short positions should only be opened after the MACD reverses down.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
 The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
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USD/CHF wave analysis for May 23, 2011

Despite differently directed Friday’s trading, the USD/CHF currency pair managed to end forming the estimated b wave of the current correction structure and observe the 50,0% correction target level after a reverse. At the same time, the decline to 0.8750 at the moment looks like the beginning of the wave of this correction. If so, the indicated downside movement can develop in the direction of the next possible target located near the 87 figure level. 


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EUR/USD Technical Support and Resistance Level For May 20, 2011

TODAY's  TECHNICAL  LEVELS :

Breakout BUY Level : 1.4394.
Strong Resistance : 1.4386.
Original Resistance : 1.4372.
Inner Sell Area : 1.4358.
Target Inner Area : 1.4324.
Inner Buy Area : 1.4290.
Original Support : 1.4276.
Strong Support : 1.4262.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.4253.

SHORT  DESCRIPTION :

Today the EUR/USD is to find Support and Resistance between 1.4276 and 1.4372 and it has a strong Support at 1.4262 and a strong Resistance at 1.4386; if today the EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.4253, it will be a sign for Short trading for today; on the other hand, if the pair can break out and close above 1.4394, it will be the sign for LONG trading for today. Another option for the advanced trader can be trading between the Inner Buy Level at the 1.4290 for LONG trading and the Inner Sell Level at the 1.4358 for the SHORT trading, and all of them with the target at the 1.4324 level.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/29019/?x=OUE

EUR/USD wave analysis for May 19, 2011

During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD could not define further direction. At the same time, the price is still within the wave structure that at the moment can be characterized as another series of abc correction waves. Thus, current situation allows both resumption of downside movement in the range of the future 5th wave in the estimated 3rd (or C), and possible development of a new uptrend section.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28967/?x=OUE 
 

USD/JPY wave analysis for May 19, 2011

Yesterday during the Asian session the USD/JPY did not manage to pass the 81 figure level and advanced to 81.70 by the end of the day. At the same time, the current situation is developing, and as a result the price might form the 1st wave of the future new uptrend section. At the same time, current MACD divergence still allows a new stage of declining in the direction of the lows reached earlier.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28973/?x=OUE 
 

USD Rallies On FOMC Minutes, Dollar Index To Maintain Trend

The U.S. dollar pared the overnight decline, with the Dow Jones-FXCM index bouncing back from a low of 9604.27, and the rebound may gather pace going into the end of the week as the Federal Reserve changes its tone for monetary policy. The index is 0.21% higher on the day after moving 94% of its average true range, and the gauge looks poised to test 9750.00 over the coming days as it continues to trade within an upward trending channel. However, as the relative strengthen index approaches oversold territory, there is likely to be a small pull back before we see the dollar index continue to retrace the decline from the previous month.

The majority of the FOMC said they favored raising the benchmark interest rate before unwinding its asset purchases, with the group debatinga possible exit strategy at the policy meeting earlier this month. However, the Fed went onto say that the recent discussion should not be interpreted as an imminent tightening in monetary policy as the committee continues to see a “moderate” recovery in the world’s largest economy. The minutes revealed that QE3 remains off the table unless there’s a marked shift in the economic outlook, and noted that the first step to normalizing monetary policy would be to cease MBS reinvestment. In terms of growth and inflation, the central bank argued that the rise in price growth is likely to be transitory, while policy makers expect unemployment to gradually decline given the ongoing weakness within the private sector. The comments suggest that the FOMC will continue to support the real economy as QE2 expires in June, and the committee may preserve a wait-and-see approach in the third-quarter to encourage a sustainable recovery.

All four components weakened on Wednesday, led by a 0.65% decline in the British Pound, and the sterling may continue to underperform against its major counterparts as the Bank of England maintains a cautious outlook for the U.K. In light of the recent developments, the GBP/USD certainly remains at risk of facing additional headwinds over the near-term, and the exchange rate looks poised to fall back towards former resistance around 1.6000 as it searches for support. However, as price growth in Britain accelerates, the heightening risk for inflation could fuel bets for a rate hike later this year, and interest rate expectations should help to prop up the sterling as market participants weigh the prospects for future policy. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors see borrowing costs in Britain increasing by nearly 50bp over the next 12-months, and interest rate expectations may gather pace in the second-half of the year should the BoE toughen its stance against inflation.

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The EURUSD's reaction to FOMC was about as straightforward as the release itself.

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EURUSD SSI points a relatively mixed picture for short-term price action. Back to net-short, contrarian bullish

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USD/JPY technical overview for May 18, 2011

At the moment the price is located in the zone between the Fibonacci levels 23.6 and 38.2. There is a sell signal from the Stochastic oscillator. Its %K line left the overbought zone for the neutral one. At the Ichimoku chart we can see that the Senkou Span B is forming a support level for the price, which accurately coincides with the Fibonacci 23.6 level. It should also be noted that the price is located in the Cloud and you should wait until the resistance level at the Senkou Span is broken before entering the market.

Resistance – 81.88
Support – 81.01 ; 79.61


http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28889/?x=OUE

EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-05-17

The spot rate has rebounded on the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.4050  and approach the upper limit of this one to 1.4260. A break of these levels  would free up significant potential and initiate a new trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.4260 with a 1st objective of 1.4380, then 1.4410. A break in 1.4230 would invalidate this scenario. http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28785/?x=OUE

EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 16-20, 2011

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4725
Weekly - R2 = 1.4583
Weekly - R1 = 1.4350
Weekly Pivot = 1.4208
Weekly - S1 = 1.3975
Weekly - S2 = 1.3833
Weekly - S3 = 1.3600       http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28749/?x=OUE
 
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5921
Monthly - R2 = 1.5401
Monthly - R1 = 1.5104
Monthly Pivot = 1.4584
Monthly - S1 = 1.4287
Monthly - S2 = 1.3767
Monthly - S3 = 1.3470

British Pound Sentiment Shows Sell Signal

GBPUSD – A noteworthy jump in GBPUSD long positions warns that the pair could continue its very recent declines. Trading crowds had remained net-short the GBPUSD from early April into the beginning of may, giving contrarian signal to stay long. Yet the SSI ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.61 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.31 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.3% higher than yesterday and 21.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 18.5% lower than yesterday and 10.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.8% weaker than yesterday and 0.9% above its monthly average. The strong build in long positions gives contrarian signal to sell into further GBPUSD declines

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Gold and silver review for May 11, 2011

A sharp decrease in futures on gasoline caused a temporary suspense in NYMEX trading with futures on energy sources following an unexpected growth of the US reserves. This fall influenced prices for precious metals because traders who suffered losses from correction of prices for raw materials last week were selling their assets.
By the end of COMEX trades quotations of July futures on silver declined by USD 2.971 (7.7%) down to USD 35.515 per ounce.
May futures on silver dropped by USD 2.971 (7.7%) and equaled USD 35.509. Quotations of June futures on gold lost USD 15.50 (1%) and constituted USD 1501.40 per ounce. May futures on gold cheapened by 1% and equaled USD 1501.10.
Prices for silver showed a gradual decline on Wednesday, as rumours over Portugal likely to be forced to swap its reserves stored in precious metals for the EU financial assistance caused speculative sells. Portugal has been experiencing hardships in fulfilling its debt obligations and facing a weak economic growth for the recent months.
Futures on silver also dropped due to a downwards tendency and futures approaching the level of USD 40 forced technical traders to fix their profits which pushed the prices down.
The declining gold prices were restrained by a higher than usually level of inflation in China. The Chinese CPI grew in April by 5.3% as compared to a rise of 5.4% in March last year. Economists had forecasted ma growth of 5.2%.
Investors consider gold to be a means of saving and a toll of hedging against inflation. This metal is growing increasingly attractive when inflation is on increase.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28467/?x=OUE  

$EURUSD low coincides with the 38.2% Fib of this year's bull trend

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eurgbp is at support now

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-05-11

Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its short-term bullish channel to 1526 and seems to initiate a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and reach the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel to1550.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1526 with a 1st objective of 1540, then 1550. A break in 1523 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28405/?x=OUE 
 

Dollar Strength Prevails- Swissie Slides on CPI

Daily Winners and Losers

The Canadian dollar remained unchanged against the greenback in overnight trade after testing at the 0.9590 support level in London. The loonie was able to stay afloat despite broad dollar strength, with the greenback advancing against all the majors save the Canadian Dollar. Yesterday’s weaker than expected housing starts saw the USD/CAD pair test the upper bound trend line of the wedge formation that has held since the start of the month. The loonie was able to break below trend line support early in pre-market trade, but quickly pared gains ahead of the US open. Downside targets for the pair are eyed at 0.9590, with subsequent floors seen at 0.9560 and the 0.95-handle. Resistance starts at 0.9645, followed by the upper-bound trend line, currently at 0.9685, and the 0.97-figure. Traders will be eying economic data tomorrow with the international merchandise trade report expected to show a gain of CAD$ 0.5B in March.

The Swiss Franc was the worst performer against the greenback overnight after the April CPI report showed inflation slowing to just 0.1% m/m in April, while the year on year figure printed at just 0.3%. The data grossly missed estimates and fueled concerns about possible deflation in the Swiss economy. With interest rates already at historic lows, traders jettisoned the swissie with the pair testing the 0.88-handle early in European trade. A breech here sees subsequent ceilings at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement taken from the April decline at 0.8850 and 0.8920. A glance at a 4-hour chart of the pair reveals divergence in the RSI indicator, suggesting there may be further losses ahead for the swissie. Interim support rests at 0.8760 backed by the 23.6% retracement at 0.8735 and 0.8710. A break below this level risks dollar losses to the 0.8640 support level.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator	Level
50-Day SMA	0.9020
20-Day SMA	0.8793
10-Day SMA	0.8696
2011 High	0.8551

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ENERGY: NYMEX WTI Crude advances 0.70% to $103.25, ICE Brent Crude up 1.42% to $117.32

AUD/CAD presents scalping opportunities- Remains rang-bound between 1.0400 and 1.0360. . .

gold by the way has already retraced 50% of the recent decline

CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook May 10, 2011 (Daily Strategy)

CRUDE OIL
An especially sharp and aggressive wave of rice drops negatively affected the price of oil, causing a fall from record heights of 114,80 dollars to a new low of 94,8 dollars within the space of just four days, this represents an interesting buy opportunity with the potential for a very nice profit.
The first portion can by bought now and strengthened later by an additional portion in the event that the price of oil breaks through the nearby resistance rate at 102.50 dollars or close above the weekly pivot line. Exists another possibility that oil prices continue their downward sequence, therefore a rebound by the level of monthly support around 98.90 would be an attractive opportunity to buy long term.
The price of oil is expected to easily rise above the resistance level of 110,40 dollars and perhaps go even higher than that.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28357/?x=OUE

What if the euro recovers its footing through the near-term? What is the best pair? Check out this $EURCAD channel

Be careful on expectations for $EURUSD follow through. Euro selling is easing, we are now looking more for risk aversion for support.

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Euro Support at 14150

The indicator plotted above is the disparity index – a measure of the distance between the closing price and the 200 day moving average on a percentage basis. Major tops since 2008 have occurred just above 9% (price exceeding its 200 day MA by 9%). Like all momentum indicators, the disparity index tends to display divergence at its final top. Without divergence present, I am wary of calling this the final top. What’s more, the 100% extension at 15279 intersects with channel resistance in mid June. The November 2010 top at 14280 is support but 14150 is a near term objective. This level is defined by the 4/18 low and 100% extension of the 14940-14509 decline (double zigzag measurement). In summary, look lower until mid week towards 14150. http://www.tradebankerstyle.com/

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast May 09th - May 13rd / 2011

WEEKLY  FORECAST :

Last week the bar of this pair made a Bearish Engulfing formation (red: reversal pattern) and the distance between the opened and the closed is far enough. It means the Bearish momentum is too strong, this situation happened because too many market participants were dissapointed with the ECB policy about the intrest rates and the Greece debt is not going well especially the 9red:Greece) allways gives wrong information about them to the ECB and another European Organization . As a result almost two days this pair had a Bearish pressure from the market participants. And for the next whole weeks, it seems the EUR/USd  will test their two critical levels  at the 1.4281 and the 1.4243; especially if the 1.4243 can be broken by this pair it will lead this pair to going down to the April Low 17th / 2011 at the 1.4152. On the other hand if the EUR/USD can reverse up until it breaks above the 1.4560 it will hold the Bearish pressure for this whole week
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28187/?x=OUE 
 

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 6, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed 5 waves of medium term downtrend (colored red in the chart). Now potential wave A of corrective A-B-C cycle is developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 134.24-130.89, 137.03-130.89.
Resistances:
- 132.17 = .382 retracement
- 132.57 = .50 ret
- 132.96 = .618 ret
- 133.24 = .382 ret
- 133.96 = .50 ret
- 134.68 = .618 ret
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-132.90-137.03, 137.03-135.17-136.09.
Supports:
- 130.00 = objective point (OP)
- 129.15 = .618 retracement
- 129.09 = expanded objective point (XOP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-60 pips above the current prices).
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28097/?x=OUE

AUD/USD candlestick analysis for May 5, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the AUD/USD is rolling back strongly after it could not break the resistance at 1.1000. However, the decline might be limited by the support level 1.0672.
As mentioned before, in case of a break of 1.1000 we should expect an upside movement to 1.1100.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the AUD/USD formed a Three White Soldiers candlestick combination that indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This combination formed amid a growth after an attempt to break the support level 0.9700; afterwards the bulls started to increase their influence. This candlestick combination provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
Besides, the AUD/USD broke the 61.8 Fibonacci correction level. Break of the 1.0500 resistance level targeted the pair to 1.0600.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.0672 is broken, long positions should be closed as it will cause a decline to 1.0440.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/28023/?x=OUE

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 4, 2011

GBP/JPY is moving within wave C of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. To confirm wave C break below 132.90 is needed, since this is the top of wave A. Now wave C has three subwaves in it - A-B and C developing, colored red in the chart. And the latter has A and corrective B - colored orange red in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 136.09-132.91, 137.03-132.91.
Resistances:
- 132.12 = .382 retracement
- 134.48-50 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements
- 138.88-97 = .618 and .50 retracements
- 135.46 = .618 ret
If the downtrend continues and the price breaks below 132.91 the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-132.90-137.03, 137.03-135.17-136.09, 136.09-132.91-134.02.
Supports:
- 132.69 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.05 = COP
- 131.22-21 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and .50 ret
- 130.84 = objective point (OP)
- 130.00 = OP
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the wave of a larger degree is moving down it's preferable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-50 pips above the current prices).
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/27913/?x=OUE

USD/CAD technical analysis for May 3, 2011

Support levels: 0.9400, 0.9353, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9721, 0.9840, 0.9972
In the 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is still declining after a slight rollback. As mentioned before, break of the 0.9450 support level allowed the pair to reach 0.9400. Besides, we can expect a decline to 0.9353, which is 100.0 Fibonacci projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 up to 0.9972.
If a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9721 resistance level, further advance to 0.9972 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as the first target and 0.9500 as the next possible target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to  the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/27859/?x=OUE
  

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-05-02

Gold broke the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel at 1540 leading to an acceleration. A pull back on these levels is expected before a resumption of bullish.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1540 with a 1st objective of 1560, then 1565. A break in 1537 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/27749/?x=OUE