AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for April 30, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the AUD/USD pair was developing an impulsive wave 3 (coloured pink). Presently we can observe the end of the 3 wave and start of the corrective wave 4 (coloured pink). During the Friday's European session we could observe the aggressive ascending movement towards the 1.0430 level. Therefore during the New York session the AUD/USD pair continues to be traded within a bullish mood. At the end of the New York session we could observe the price reaching 4 weeks high at 1.0473 level. We can consider this move as the end of the wave 3 (coloured pink). Today during the Asian session the price has started moving in a bearish mood and price is currently testing 1.0440 support level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 50% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0305-1.0482) and Take Profit at 1.0394 (50% of wave 3). For Stop Loss the resistance level at 1.0470 can be used. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m and Chicago PMI that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0311 (S2) 1.0358 (S1) 1.0386 (PP) 1.0432 (R1) 1.0479 (R2) 1.0507 (R3) 1.0553
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0435 with Stop Loss at 1.0470 and Take Profit at 1.395 are recommended.