USD/CAD Pushing Lower Today - Analysis for June 29, 2012

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
The USD/CAD pair was trading in an upward move on Thursday developing impulsive wave 1 (colored blue). During both the Asian and the European sessions we could observe strong ascending movement in this major pair that brings price to the new 3 weeks high at 1.0037 level. Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached 1.0361 level. We can consider this level as end of the 1 wave (coloured blue). At the moment we can observe the start of the 2 wave (coloured blue) and we are expecting to see price around 1.0280 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 retraces minimum 50% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0231-1.0361) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0296 (50% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0281 (61.8% of wave 1). Yesterday’s high at 1.0361 can be used as a Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the CAD GDP m/m, RMPI m/m, IPPI m/m and U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0178 (S2) 1.0228 (S1) 1.0258 (PP) 1.0308 (R1) 1.0358 (R2) 1.0388 (R3) 1.0438
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0325 with Stop Loss at 1.0361 Take Profit 1 at 1.0296 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0281 are recommended.

USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for June 28, 2012

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In order to confirm the expected Head & Shoulders reversal pattern, the USD/CAD pair needed to breakdown the neck-line around 1.0240 to open the way towards its bearish target at 1.0160. However, the pair failed to do so today. Instead, it showed significant bullish price action towards 1.0240 which pushed the pair towards the upper limit of the Yellow channel and the backside of the broken violet channel around 1.0275.
Price Level 1.0240 constitutes an important Intraday Support Level for USD/CAD corresponding to the neck-line of the H&S pattern and the mid-line of the Blue & Yellow bearish channels.
Price Level 1.0275 constitutes an important Resistance Level for the pair corresponding to the upper limit of the Yellow channel where price action of the pair should be watched for a possible low-risk SELL entry. However, breakthrough of 1.0275 probably leads to a quick bullish movement towards 1.0305 initially.
Breakdown of 1.0240 confirms the H&S pattern opening the way for the pair towards 1.0160. However, failure of the pair to do so invalidates the bearish scenario and the H&S pattern.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-27

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5650 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 1.5700.
Technical indicators provide sell-signals and until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5650 with the 1st objective at 1.5700 and then at 1.5720. A break through 1.5630will invalidate this scenario.

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-26

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5600 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 1.5700.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5600 with the 1st objective at 1.5660 and then at 1.5680. A break through 1.5580 will invalidate this scenario.

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USD/CAD pushing higher - Analysis for June 25, 2012

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
During the Friday's trading session the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move developing corrective 4 wave (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe ascending movement toward the 1.0299 level. We can consider this move as the end of the 3 wave (coloured blue). Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair started pushing lower and price reached a new daily low at 1.0240 level (end of the corrective 4 wave). Today during the Asian session this major pair has started pushing higher and the price is currently around the 1.0270 level.
Presently we can see the developing of the final 5 wave of the bigger wave (1) (coloured green) and we are waiting for the price to move higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring (1) wave (coloured green) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0305 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0346 (161.8% of wave 1). Resistance at 1.0230 can be used as a Stop Loss point.
Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. New Home Sales data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0202 (S2) 1.0224(S1) 1.0238 (PP) 1.0260(R1) 1.0282 (R2) 1.0296(R3) 1.0318
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0285 with Stop Loss at 1.0230 Take Profit 1 at 1.0305 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0346 are recommended.

GBP/USD: Sideways Trend for June 22, 2012

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.5632.

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Sideways Trend: Prices are moving within a narrow range between 1.5600 and 1.5850.

GBP/USD:

• Resistance: 1.5906. (Sell below this level).
• Support: 1.5600. (Buy above this level).
  

Trading Recommendations:

According to the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.5600 and 1.5850.

• The descending movement will probably take place lower than the 1.5906 level with the first targets at levels 1.5783 and 1.565.
• BUY deals are recommended higher than the 1.5600 level with targets at levels 1.5710 and 1.5850.

Overview:

It should be noted that the market revealed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. In the light of the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.5600 and 1.5850, so it is recommended to be cautious while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then, the market will probably indicate the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, BUY deals are recommended higher than the 1.5600 level with its first target at the level of 1.5710. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point 1.5850 and further to the level 1.59. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.5906, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level 1.5906. In this regard, SELL deals are recommended lower than the 1.5906 level with the first target at 1.5780. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.5670 then 1.5632 (The weekly pivot point).

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-21

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 100.60 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 99.40.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but are approaching overbuy zone supporting a break of its support. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 100.60 with the 1st objective at 101.20 and then at 101.40. A break through 100.40 will alter this scenario.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for June 14, 2012

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The 4H chart reveals significant resistance level located around 1.5635 corresponding to the lower limit of a previous congestion zone which hasn't been tested yet.
The GBP/USD demonstrated significant bearish reaction manifested in the bearish engulfing 4H candlesticks which predicted a possible breakdown of the Violet channel that took place today in order to resume the downtrend initiated long time ago.
Termination of the current bullish move initiated last week becomes confirmed on breakdown of Support Level 1.5450.


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The 1H chart depicts a strong bullish reaction towards Price Level 1.5460 which corresponds to the lower limit of the Blue and Yellow channels. However, the pair expressed significant bearish reaction Yesterday at testing of price level 1.5600.
Breakdown the mid-line of the Yellow channel at 1.5555 opened the way towards the lower limit of the same channel around price zone 1.5470-1.5480 which is being tested now.
The lower limit of the Yellow channel at 1.5470-1.5480 constitutes a Strong Support Zone and a possible quick Intraday BUY entry with TP at 1.5550.
The GBP/USD has a strong Intraday Resistance Level at 1.5555 corresponding to the mid-line of the Yellow channel which constitutes a valid Intraday SELL entry with SL located above 1.5600.
TP levels are to be located at 1.5510, 1.5470 and 1.5410.

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for June 13, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in an upward movement developing impulsive 3 wave. During the European session we could observe ascending movement toward the 0.9930 level. Therefore during the New York session AUD/USD continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached a new daily high at the 0.9966 level. Today during the Asian session the AUD/USD pair found support at 0.9930 and price continued pushing higher. At the moment we are in the middle of the impulsive 3 wave (coloured pink) and we expect to see the price higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets Fibonacci extensions (0.9820-1.0008-0.9850) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0087 (127.2% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0152 (161.8% of wave 1). Support level at 0.9930 can be used as a Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core PPI m/m, Business Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories and 10-y Bond Auction data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 0.9808 (S2) 0.9852 (S1) 0.9880 (PP) 0.9925 (R1) 0.9969 (R2) 0.9997 (R3) 1.0042
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0000 with Stop Loss at 0.9930 Take Profit 1 at 1.0087 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0152 are recommended.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-12

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The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5540 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and initiate a violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators provide buy-signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most probable. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened these days pointing at decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events the market will offer a bullish prospect as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5540 with the 1st objective at 1.5600 and then at 1.5620. A break through 1.5520 will invalidate this scenario.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-08

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Gold is currently testing the intermediate support of its mid-term bearish channel at 1.550 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to a lower limit – 1.510.
Technical indicators provide BUY signals and are approaching the oversold zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in the short term.
According to the previous events, the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.550 with the 1st objective at 1.560 and then at 1.565. A break through 1.547 will alter this scenario.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-07

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The spot rate has broken the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5430 resulting in acceleration. A pull back on these levels is expected before the upper limit of its channel in 1.5580 is reached.
Technical indicators provide sellers signals supporting the assumption of a pull back. Bollinger bands are much discarded due to the strong increase that took place these days. The situation is expected to stabilize in the nearest future.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.5430 with the 1st objectives seen at 1.5490 and 1.5520. A breakdown of 1.5410 will reverse this scenario.

GBP/USD Wave Analysis for June 6, 2012

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Wave marking analysis:
Yesterday the GBP/USD pair continued the consolidation between 1.5400 and 1.5340 supposedly forming the horizontal part of the trend within more prolonged ascending corrective structure. If that proves to be so, then after the completion of the wave B the pair is likely to resume the growth of quotes towards correction level of 23.6%, located above the point 1.5500. At the same time, the unexpected reaction on Bank of England’s decision can lead to the rapid growth of the pound or even to the return of the price in the area of highs of May.

Targets for further elaboration of the wave 3 in C or 3 of the downside part of the trend:
1.5267 and lower – low of the wave 5
Targets for the option with corrective waves a-b-c:
1.5386 – 11.4% of Fibonacci
1.5511 – 23.6% of Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The current ascending part of the trend continues its development. The intermediary target is seen at the 1.5267 which is the low of the wave 5. Presently the quotes can reach the levels of 1.5386 and 1.5511 which is equal to 11.4% and 23.6% of Fibonacci within the 3-wave corrective structure. The downside channel points at possible prospective for the downward part of the trend. No divergence/convergence was formed.

USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for June 5, 2012

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Intraday Technical Outlook:
The USD/CAD pair was trading within the depicted uptrend line started on the 3rd of May. However, its movement has been sideways or tending to be bearish for the last two days.
The USD/CAD made bearish breakout below the Yellow & Blue channels which indicates some bearish tendency of the pair.
The backside of the lower limit of the broken channels is being tested around price level 1.0420 which also corresponds to the upper limit of the Violet Channel.
The USD/CAD pair INTRADAY outlook remains bearish as long as the pair is trading below 1.0445.
In the short-term prospective, the USD/CAD pair remains bullish as long as the pair is trading above Support Level 1.0310 then above the previous congestion zone 1.0230-1.0150 on the mid-term.
Intraday Support & Resistance Levels:
Support :
S1: 1.0370
S2: 1.0300
S3:1.0230
S4: 1.0150.
Resistance :
R1: 1.0400
R2 : 1.0450.
Trade Recommendations:
If you have current SELL entry taken at price level 1.0440, keep holding it with some profit taking at 1.0370 and move its SL to breakeven.
- Price Level 1.0420 constitutes a valid intraday SELL entry with SL located above 1.0470 & TP levels at 1.0390 & 1.0340.
- Price Level 1.0300 constitutes a valid BUY entry with SL located below 1.0220 while TP levels are to be located at 1.0350, 1.0395 & 1.0475.

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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Count and Fibonacci Levels for June 4, 2012

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart) including three subwaves (magenta in the chart) and an impulse subwave C developing from 126.39. Within this wave we also have four subwaves (red in the chart) and potential corrective subwave 4 developing from 118.74.
Presently the downside targets are Fibonacci expansions of 129.33-124.59-126.39, 126.39-124.08-125.03, 125.03-118.74-120.77.
Supports:
- 118.72 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 116.88 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.03-118.74.
Resistances:
- 121.14 = .382 retracement
- 121.88 = .50 ret
- 122.63 = .618 ret




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Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving downwards, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-01

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The spot rate is presently testing the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5340 and is likely to initiate a rebound. However, a breakdown of these levels will reveal significant potential and initiate a more violent bearish trend.
Technical indicators provide buyers signals and evolving in oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong recent decline. The situation is likely to stabilize soon.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.5340 with 1st objectives seen at 1.5400 and 1.5420. A breakdown of 1.5320 will cancel this scenario.

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