USD/CAD Pushing Lower Today - Analysis for June 29, 2012

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
The USD/CAD pair was trading in an upward move on Thursday developing impulsive wave 1 (colored blue). During both the Asian and the European sessions we could observe strong ascending movement in this major pair that brings price to the new 3 weeks high at 1.0037 level. Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached 1.0361 level. We can consider this level as end of the 1 wave (coloured blue). At the moment we can observe the start of the 2 wave (coloured blue) and we are expecting to see price around 1.0280 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 retraces minimum 50% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0231-1.0361) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0296 (50% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0281 (61.8% of wave 1). Yesterday’s high at 1.0361 can be used as a Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the CAD GDP m/m, RMPI m/m, IPPI m/m and U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0178 (S2) 1.0228 (S1) 1.0258 (PP) 1.0308 (R1) 1.0358 (R2) 1.0388 (R3) 1.0438
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0325 with Stop Loss at 1.0361 Take Profit 1 at 1.0296 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0281 are recommended.