Fundamental market review for August 31, 2011

Natalia Grigorieva

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar dropped versus the Yen and euro during the Asian trading session on Wednesday as investors have been discussing the likeliness that growing pessimism over the US economic prospects will contribute to stable low Treasury Bonds yield in the long run. The US dollar is very likely to weaken further as the yield of the Treasury Bonds is declining which is a signal of worse consumer sentiment and business climate in relation to the world’s largest economy, Nomura Trust and Banking senior dealer Hideki Amikura says. Such expectations gained support of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Charles L. Evans: he made comments suggestive of inclination to a milder policy. He insists on a necessity to continue implementing the programme of quantitative easing. In early August the US central bank discussed a series of unconventional tools to sustain the economy. Yet some regulators called for new dramatic measured to take in order to stimulate fading recovery. Before promising to keep the interest rate near zero level at least up to 2013, the Federal Reserve System checked its current funds, including relation of the interest rate to the unemployment level or inflation rate.
The FRS actions may be assessed at its next meeting slated for September 20. Investors will be relieved at the US unemployment rate on which the data is due for release this week.
Automatic Data Processing is to publish the data on working places in the US private sector in August. According to the median forecast of economists the number of working places is to grow by 100 000 as compared to the previous month. Chief currency strategist at Barclays Capital Masafumi Yamamoto says that the data may well fall short of the expectations. It will urge market participants to sell the US dollar and prefer the Yen shelter-currency to it.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/37420/?x=OUE 

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EUR/USD wave analysis for August 31, 2011

Alexander Dneprovskiy

Yesterday’s decline of the EUR/USD currency pair to the 1.4380 level has probably enabled it to form the 4th wave in the estimated 5th (in the 3rd). If so, the upside movement indicated later yesterday might appear the beginning of the 5th wave in this 5th (in the 3rd). At the same time the level of the 46 figure is still the target level for this whole 5th wave.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/37358/?x=OUE 

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EUR/JPY Intraday Technical analysis 2011-08-30

The spot rate approaches the intermediate resistance of its medium-term bullish channel in 112.10 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would allow it to reach the upper limit of its channel to 112.90.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 112.10 with a 1st objective of 112.70, then 112.90. A break in 111.90 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/37218/?x=OUE

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 30, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C (from 1.0315) of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave C there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0418. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9928-1.0600-1.0315, 1.0315-1.0533-1.0418, 1.0418-1.0517-1.0463, 1.0463-1.0590-1.0548, 1.0548-1.0633-1.0605
Resistances:
- 1.0690 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0722 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0743 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0753 = XOP
- 1.0771 = XOP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0418-1.0685.
Supports:
- 1.0583 = .382 retracement
- 1.0552 = .50 ret
- 1.0520 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (5-15 pips below the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/37220/?x=OUE 

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 29, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 126.51.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-125.61-126.51.
Supports:
- 123.76 = expanded objective point (OP)
- 122.65 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 127.31-124.47.
Resistances:
- 125.55 = .382 retracement
- 125.89 = .50 ret
- 126.31 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-30 pips above the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/37070/?x=OUE

 www.TradeBankerStyle.com 

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 26, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 125.61.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 123.27-127.31, and expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-125.61-126.51, 126.51-125.82-126.48.
Supports:
- 125.79 = objective point (OP)
- 125.46 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.36-29 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .50 retracement
- 124.81 = confluence area of OP and .618 ret
- 124.67 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- etc.
If the price reverses to the upnside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-127.31-125.61.
Resistances:
- 127.31 = 0% ret
- 127.93 = .618 ret
- 128.11 = COP
- 129.65 = OP

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/36978/?x=OUE

www.TradeBankerStyle.com 

 

 

 

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical analysis 2011-08-25

The spot rates approach the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel in 111.40 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would initiate a bullish trend more violent.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 111.40 with a 1st objective of 112.10, then 112.30. A break in 111.20 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/36850/?x=OUE

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The Forecast for GBP/USD by the Market Profile for Wednesday, August 24, 2011

On Tuesday, August 23, 2011 the market profile of the British pound can be related to as the normal day.
Having strengthened considerably in the first half of the day the pound did not manage to stay near 1.6566 and started to decline gradually.
The day resulted in the Wednesday zones of the fair price to locate in the area of VAL - 1.6475 and VAH -1.6536. The point of control POC was formed near 1.6504.
Forecast for today:
During the session in Asia the British pound was trading within a narrow sideways channel.
In case the upmove continues the first resistance level will be POC of August 18 at 1.6511, from which the growth can continue to POC of April 27 - 1.6556, and then to 1.6591 - VAH from April 21.
The most conservative LONGs will be traded up to 1.6628 - VAH from April 29.
In the falling occurs again the first support level will be the area of POC from August 22 - 1.6482 which VAH of August 8 is 1.6472, then to POC of August 1 - 1.6446.
The most conservative SHORTs will be traded to POC of August 17 - 1.6425.

 

Abbreviations:
POC (Point of Control) – orange horizontal line on the chart.
The lower limit of the fair price zone - VAL – violet horizontal line on the chart which is always under POC.
The upper limit of the fair price zone - VAH – violet horizontal line on the chart which is always above POC.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/36764/?x=OUE  

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 23, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within potential wave C (from 1.0600) of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave C there are A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 1.0315. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0600, 1.0111-1.0600, and expansions off 1.1079-0.9928-1.0600, and 1.0600-1.0315-1.0479.
Supports:
- 1.0303-1.0298 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 retracement
- 1.0264 = .50 ret
- 1.0194-85 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 ret
- 1.0018 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9889 = COP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.1079-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0600-1.0315, 1.0315-1.049-1.0363.
Resistances:
- 1.0464 = COP
- 1.0527 = OP
- 1.0628 = XOP
- 1.0639 = .618 ret
- 1.0730 = COP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/36602/?x=OUE  

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Short EURUSD on the Rallies (Scalping Strategy)

Looking to short EURUSD on the rallies; an hourly ATR of 24.8 eyes profit targets of 17-22 pips depending on entry. Downside targets held at 1.4360, 1.4340, and ultimately a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the July 11th and August 4th troughs at 1.4315. Topside break above the 61.8% extension at 1.4480 shifts our bias.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/michael_boutros/2011/08/22/8-22-pick.html

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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 22 - 26 August, 2011

_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6998
Weekly - R2 = 1.6807
Weekly - R1 = 1.6636
Weekly Pivot = 1.6445
Weekly - S1 = 1.6274
Weekly - S2 = 1.6083
Weekly - S3 = 1.5912

_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.7359
Monthly - R2 = 1.6914
Monthly - R1 = 1.6670
Monthly Pivot = 1.6225
Monthly - S1 = 1.5981
Monthly - S2 = 1.5536
Monthly - S3 = 1.5292

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/36558/?x=OUE 

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 19, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse wave С of medium term downtrend from 126.95 (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave there are two subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 125.66.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 123.27-126.95, and expansions off 130.81-123.27-126.95, and 126.95-125.66-126.77.
Supports:
- 125.54-48 = confluence area of .382 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 125.11 = .50 ret
- 124.68 = confluence area of .618 ret and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.39 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 122.29 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses to the upside and breaks above 126.95 the immdiate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-126.95-125.66.
Resistances:
- 127.04 = .50 ret
- 127.93 = confluence area of .618 ret and COP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (50-65 pips above the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/36386/?x=OUE 

www.tradebankerstyle.com  

GBP/USD market manipulations analysis for August 18, 2011

Following the main scenario, the pound fixated above the local high and kept on increasing. At the moment the price is correcting near the support level 1.6505. The 1.6568 level will provide resistance. Main scenario: growth from the level 1.6505 to the 1.6568 level. Alternative scenario: fixation below the support level 1.6505 will cause a decline.
Trading recommendations:
Buy from the 1.6505 level.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/36316/?x=OUE  

www.tradebankerstyle.com

USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian Consumer Price Report

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 08/19/2011 11:00 GMT, 7:00 EST

Primary Pair Impact:USDCAD

Expected: 2.8%

Previous: 3.1%

DailyFX Forecast: 2.6% to 3.0%

Why Is This Event Important:

Consumer prices in Canada are projected to increase at an annual pace of 2.8% after expanding 3.1% in June, and the slower rate of inflation is likely to spark a bearish reaction in the loonie as interest rate expectations falter. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants see borrowing costs in Canada falling by more than 25bp in the next 12-months, and we may see Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney preserve his pledge to ‘carefully consider’ future rate hikes as policy makers curb their outlook for the region. However, an uptick in price growth could put increased pressure on the BoC to normalize monetary policy further, and the central bank may show an increased willingness to lift the benchmark interest rate from 1.00% in an effort to balance the risks for the economy.

Recent Economic Developments 

The pickup in private sector consumption may encourage businesses to raise prices as they continue to cope with high input costs, and the near-term reversal in the USD/CAD may gather pace should we see a higher rate of inflation spur expectations for a rate hike. However, as businesses scale back on spending, the drop in global trade may drive firms to keep a lid on consumer prices, and price pressures may weaken further over the coming months as companies try to stimulate domestic demands. In turn, we may see the BoC carry its current policy into the following year, and Governor Carney may endorse keep the benchmark interest rate on hold well into 2013 as growth and inflation cool.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

 

How To Trade This Event Risk

Forecasts for a slower rate of inflation encourages a bearish outlook for the loonie, but an unexpected rise in consumer prices could set the stage for a long Canadian dollar trade as interest rate expectations resurface. Therefore, if the headline reading tips higher from the previous month, we will need to see a red, five-minute candle following the report to establish a short entry on two-lots of USD/CAD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trade reaches its mark in order to preserve our profits.

In contrast, businesses may keep a lid on consumer prices in an effort to stimulate private sector consumption, and the slowdown in price growth may lead the BoC to retain its current policy stance throughout the remainder of the year as the central bank aims to encourage a sustainable recovery. As a result, if the headline reading for inflation grows less than 2.8%, we will carry out the same setup for a long dollar-loonie trade as the short position laid out above, just in reverse.

 

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 17, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within wave B (from 1.0928) of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1079-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0414-1.0111, 1.0111-1.0511-1.0406.

Resistances:

- 1.0597 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0639-53 = confluence area of .618 ret and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0806 = OP

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0511.

Supports:

- 1.0288 = .382 ret
- 1.0219 = .50 ret

- 1.0151 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (20-25 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (50-60 pips below the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/36112/?x=OUE 

www.tradebankerstyle.com  

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-08-16

The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1.6420 and seems to start a  decline. However a break of these levels would initiate a bullish trend more violent.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.6420 with a 1st objective of 1.6540, then 1.6580. A break in 1.6390 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/36022/?x=OUE 

www.tradebankerstyle.com    

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-08-15

Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel  in 1748 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a new trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1748 with a 1st objective of 1759, then 1764. A break in 1746 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35904/?x=OUE   

www.tradebankerstyle.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 12, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within subwave 4 (from 1.09928) of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. These four waves are part of wave A of larger degree from 1.1079 (colored royal blue in the chart). Within wave 4 there are three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0111.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1063-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0414-1.0111.
Resistances:
- 1.0414 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0496 = .50 retracement
- 1.0597 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0629 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements 0.9928-1.0414, and expansions off 1.0414-1.0111-1.0358.
Supports:
- 1.0171 = COP
- 1.0114 = .618 ret
- 1.0055 = OP
- 0.9928 = 100% ret
- 0.9868 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (30-60 pips below the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35766/?x=OUE  

www.tradebankerstyle.com   

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-08-12

Gold is approaching the upper limit of its short-term bearish channel in 1774 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would initiate a new trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1774 with a 1st objective of 1787, then 1794. A break in 1772 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35774/?x=OUE  

www.tradebankerstyle.com    

Technical analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 11, 2011

4-hour timeframe

Overview:
Forex market analysis for August 11 shows that at the moment downtrend still remains and there are frequent rollbacks and corrections. The downtrend is moving to side movement. It is not recommended to trade this pair now. The buy signal is confirmed and weak, since the Chinkou Span fixated over the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 1.4660– the second support level. Upside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.4240), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show side movement, which prevents us from bullish trading. Yet due to high volatility and frequent corrections trading is not recommended in general.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the market stabilizes. Trading is dangerous now as losses are rather likely to occur.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35710/?x=OUE   

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JPY-Crosses: Preparing for a Yen Intervention

Now that the USD/JPY is trading below its exchange rate prior to the August 4 Ministry of Finance intervention, as investors continue to favor the Yen as a safe haven amid the deepening European sovereign debt crisis, another intervention is likely on the horizon in order to combat haven flows.

Considering not only recent commentary by Japanese government officials stating that they are “watching the currency markets” carefully, but also the fact that yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to leave rates low for an extended period, until “mid-2013,” further pressure is likely on the USD/JPY over the medium-term, essentially forcing one of the two Japanese governmental institutions to step in order to stem the Yen’s rally across the major currencies. It should be noted that Yen-crosses could depreciate further before an intervention, as the USD/JPY has been intervened at decreasing exchange rates upon each occurrence.

Please note that the trade recommendations contained here within are advised only under the pretext of an intervention to weaken the Yen, as broader macroeconomic trends are dictating further market uncertainty and thus capital flows into the safe haven currencies in the near-term, and any appreciation of currencies against the Yen, in the author’s opinion, are likely to be short-lived.

USD/JPY Hourly: August 2 to August 10

The above chart, an updated hourly snapshot of the USD/JPY, details the finer aspects of the intervention move by the Ministry of Finance. The Fibonacci retracements, from the low ahead of the Asian session open at 76.919, to the post-intervention high at 80.230, show that over 100.0 percent of the move following the currency manipulation has been retraced. The USD/JPY, despite some fluctuations on very short timeframes, has depreciated nearly linearly since peaking at 80.230, falling as low as 76.344, just above the all-time low set on August 1, at 76.283. In light of the recent price action, the suggested strategy on how to position trades on a possible intervention has been update, now that the USD/JPY has since retraced the entire intervention rally.

Suggested Strategy

• Long: Place an entry at 77.700 [76.4 Fibo]
• Stop: Set the stop to 76.919 [100.0 Fibo, 78-pip risk]
• Target 1 (Risk/Reward Ratio): 78.575 [38.2 Fibo] (86/78, 1.12)
• Target 2: 79.449 [23.6 Fibo] (175/78, 2.24)
• Target 3: 80.230 [0.00 Fibo] (253/78, 3.24)
• Timeframe: 12-hours following intervention
• AUD/JPY Hourly: August 2 to August 10
  
• The above chart details the AUD/JPY moves over the past week following the intervention. The pair easily retraced the Ministry’s manipulation, trading back to the pre-intervention level within just over 12-hours. The AUD/JPY should be watched carefully in light of an intervention, as it represents the most significant carry trade among the major currencies currently, and thus presents the greatest opportunity to the upside should market conditions allow for further appreciation. On the other hand, diminished rate hike expectations have weighed on the Australian Dollar in August, as it is the worst performing currency over said timeframe, and therefore gains are likely limited.
  Suggested Strategy
  • Long: Place an entry at 79.811 [38.2 Fibo]
  • Stop: Set the stop to 79.311 [50-pip risk]
  • Target 1 (Risk/Reward Ratio): 80.830 [50.0 Fibo] (102/50, 2.04)
  • Target 2: 81.848 [61.8 Fibo] (204/50, 4.08)
  • Timeframe: 12-hours following intervention
  • GBP/JPY Hourly: August 2 to August 10
    
  • An interesting currency to trade against the Yen, in my opinion, is the GBP/JPY. The pair had one of the more exaggerated responses to the intervention on August 4, rallying over 400-pips on the move – the AUD/JPY and USD/JPY only rallied approximately 300-pips each. As such, considering that the Sterling has been the strongest non-safe haven currency today, it has momentum in its favor, certainly something that can be exploited for now should an intervention occur.
    Suggested Strategy
    • Long: Place an entry at 125.071 [23.6 Fibo]
    • Stop: Set the stop to 124.571 [50-pip risk]
    • Target 1 (Risk/Reward Ratio): 126.170 [38.2 Fibo] (110/50, 2.20)
    • Target 2: 127.058 [23.6 Fibo] (199/50, 3.98)
    • Target 3: 127.946 [0.00 Fibo] (288/50, 5.76)
    • Timeframe: 12-hours following intervention
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 10, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within subwave 4 (from 1.09928) of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. These four waves are part of wave A of larger degree from 1.1079 (colored royal blue in the chart). Within wave 4 there are three subwaves (colored yellow in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0064.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1063-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0255-1.0064.
Resistances:
- 1.0391 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0496 = .50 retracement
- 1.0593 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0629 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9928 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (50-80 pips below the current prices).

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 9, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed the wave from 135.11 to 124.16 and is now moving in a corrective wave against this movement. Current wave A of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) now has A and B subwaves, with subwave B still developing from 130.81 (colored magenta in the chart). Within wave B there are three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 128.87.
The targets below the current price level are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-127.38-128.87, 128.87-126.45-127.30.
Supports:
- 125.44 = objective point (OP), already hit (!)
- 124.88 = OP
- 123.38 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.32 = XOP
- 120.96 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 119.89 = SXOP
If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 139.94-124.16, 135.11-124.16, and 130.81-125.36.
Resistances:
- 127.44 = .382 retracement
- 128.09 = .50 ret
- 128.73 = .618 ret
- 130.93 = .618 ret
- 132.05 = .50 ret
- 133.91 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (40-60 pips above the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35476/?x=OUE 

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EUR/USD Fundamental situation review August 9, 2011

Despite the intervention of the European Central Bank on Monday to buy the bonds, including Italy, Spain, equaling about 4.5 billions according to some economic reports.
Now the market is concerned more about the fears of Europe's crisis rather than the United States news.
The main event which controls the market since the weekly opening and so far  was the fear about the severe debt crisis in the region of Europe also the rumors about the possibility of reducing the credit rating of Britain and France.
This applied pressure on the euro and and managed to pull the prices from the High"1.4420" to Yesterday's low "1.4129 "
This remains in place until the pressure is now
On the other hand, there's an important event today which is the decision of U.S. interest  which is expected not to be changed, and the eyes are turned to the statement accompanying the decision by the U.S. Federal and any change in tone during talking or any reference to the QE III?
Generally the majority of the public analysts exclude having any updates about it today.
Scenarios were limited to one of these 3 ones:
First
Tone is worried but without reference to quantitative easing, If this happens, it is expected for the USD to rise against all currencies except Franc and Yen.
II
Tone is worried with reference to the quantitative easing and this may cause decline of USD against other currencies.
III
Optimistic tone, without any indication of the quantitative easing, although this is ruled out a little.
But that will cause the dollar to rise very strongly.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35480/?x=OUE  

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 8, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed the wave from 135.11 to 124.16 and is now moving in a corrective wave against this movement. Current wave A of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) now has A and B subwaves, with subwave B still developing from 130.81 (colored magenta in the chart).
The targets below the current price level are Fibonacci retracements of 124.16-130.81, and 125.25-130.81, and expansions off 130.81-127.38-128.87.
Supports:
- 127.49-37 = confluence area of .50 and .618 retracements
- 126.75-70 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 ret
- 125.44 = objective point (OP)
- 123.32 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 139.94-124.16, 135.11-124.16, and expansions off 124.16-130.81-127.38.
Resistances:
- 130.93 = .618 ret
- 131.49 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.05 = .50 ret
- 133.91 = .618 ret
- 134.03 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-35 pips below the current prices).

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35346/?x=OUE 

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 5, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within wave 5 (from 1.0784) of medium term downtrend - colored red in the chart. Within this wave there are four subwaves with subwave 4 from 1.0424 still developing - colored yellow in the chart.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0784-1.0424.
Resistances:
- 1.0562 = .382 retracement
- 1.0604 = .50 ret
- 1.0646 = .618 ret
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.1063-1.0679-1.0784.
Supports:
- 1.0400 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0163 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 5, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed the wave from 135.11 to 124.16 and is now moving in a corrective wave against this movement. Current wave A of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) now has A and B subwaves, with subwave B still developing from 130.81 (colored magenta in the chart).
The targets below the current price level are Fibonacci retracements of 124.16-130.81, and 125.25-130.81.
Supports:
- 127.49-37 = confluence area of .50 and .618 retracements
- 126.70 = .618 ret
If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 139.94-124.16, 135.11-124.16, and expansions off 124.16-130.81-127.51.
Resistances:
- 130.93 = .618 ret
- 131.62 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.05 = .50 ret
- 133.91 = .618 ret
- 134.16 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (60-90 pips below the current prices).

http://news.instaforex.com/analytics/rss/x=OUE

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis August 5, 2011

Bearish engulfing daily candlestick enhances the previously mentioned DAILY DOUBLE TOP pattern.
Price is still finding support at 1.6200 1.6250, it needs to be broken to open the way for the bears.
This support prevents the pair from declining and visiting 1.6000-1.6040.

Multiple tops on the 4H chart, the neck-line is found at 1.6230 - 1.6250.
4H closure below the neckline confirms the pattern targeting 1.6145, 1.6076 then 1.6025.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 4, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed the wave from 135.11 to 124.16 and is now moving in a corrective wave against this movement. Current wave A of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) now has A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 125.29 (colored red in the chart).
The immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 139.94-124.16, 135.11-124.16, and expansions off 124.16-126.96-125.29.
Resistances:
- 129.63-82 = confluence area of .50 retracement and expanded objective point (XOP), already reached (!)
- 130.19 = .382 ret
- 130.93 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 125.29 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (120-130 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (170-200 pips below the current prices).
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

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USD/JPY Intraday Technical analysis 2011-08-03

The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 77.80 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would release significant potential and initiate a new trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 77.80 with a 1st objective of 78.50, then 78.80. A break in 77.60 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/35002/?x=OUE  

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EUR/GBP Supply & Demand Analysis August 2, 2011

We have a broken bullish channel successfully retested.
Area 0.8850-0.8880 provided a good supply zone which prevented further upside movement.
Now the pair is testing the demand zone 0.8720 - 0.8700, with its break it will target 0.8610 as the next obvious demand area.
If the current demand area limited the decline, this would bring the pair back to the supply area 0.8850-0.8880.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/34938/?x=OUE