EUR/USD: Numerical Analysis for October 28, 2011.

Forecast

Mourad El Keddani

Use time frame of M15 to determine the lower and the higher price of yesterday, because it's more precise.


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Open : 1.3904
High : 1.4246
Low : 1.3864
Close: 1.4192

Apply Formulas:

Pivot Point = (High + Low + Close) / 3 = 1.4101.
Then the market will indicate a bullish opportunity on level of 1.4101.
However, the best location for placing stop loss should be at: (Low + (Function / 100)) = 1.3917
Function = (High - (High - Low)) * 38%.

• Range was: 382 pips (upward).
• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: (High + Low) / 2 = 1.4055. (The key level of a range day).
• Volatility is 536.9 so the market has called for a high volatile.

It should be noted that the market was so stable and trend was also so clear (upward).

Technical Levels:

R3:1.4719
R2:1.4483
R1:1.4337
PP:1.4101
S1:1.3955
S2:1.3719
S3:1.3573

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.3864 and 1.4246.

• Buy above 1.4000 with a first target of 1.4200, it might resume to 1.4275.
• Below 1.3950 look for further downside with 1.3870 and 1.3720 targets.

Short Overview:

The EUR/USD has broken a major resistance at 1.3969, it should be noted that the pivot point calculated at 1.1401 and it is now approaching from it, therefore it will probably start upside movement at this area and recovery again. So he market will indicate a bullish opportunity on level of 1.4100 and it will a good sign to buy at this spot with a first target of 1.4200,and continue towards 1.4300. On other hand if a break in 1.3917 then it will be a good location for placing stop loss.

Observation (s):

• Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
• Use historic prices to determine future prices.
• Fibonacci retracement uses to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance, and playing according to in this kind of period.
• Breakout 2 – A breakout strategy that looks to go long when a currency pair breaks above its 24-hour trading range, short on a break below. Unlike a raw channel breakout strategy,

Warning (s):

• Fibonacci in a range trader (it is looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period you'll go sure for losing your profit.
• Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
• Usually the market has a high volatile on Friday.

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