AUD/USD Wave Analysis July 19, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
The AUD/USD pair was trading in a strong upward move for the last few weeks developing impulsive wave (3) (coloured green). Yesterday during the European session we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.0287 level where this currency pair found support and the price started pushing higher. Therefore, during the New York session we could see a strong ascending move that brought the AUD/USD pair to the new high around 1.0375 level. Today this currency pair continued trading in a bullish mood and we are expecting to see the price above 1.0500 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0100-1.0248-1.0204) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0445 (161.8% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0502(200% of wave 1). Support at 1.0330 point can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0256 (S2) 1.0289 (S1) 1.0309 (PP) 1.0341 (R1) 1.0374 (R2) 1.0394 (R3) 1.0426
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0390 with Stop Loss 1.0330 Take Profit 1 at 1.0445 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0502 are recommended.