EUR/USD. Forecast for September 5, 2012

Macroeconomic data on Tuesday was not as optimistic as many expected. Number of unemployed in Spain increased by 38.2K while the US PMI fixed at the level of 49.6 against forecasted 50.1. It was 48.8 in July. The American stock market (S&P500) lost 0.12%, the European Stoxx600 fell 1.13%.
Today at 12:30 (GMT +3) the Eurozone will disclose its PMI services index for August. As the analysts expect that the reading will not change and make up 47.5. At 13:00 (GMT +3) we are waiting for retail sales for July. The indicator is supposed to drop 0.2% against 0.1% growth in June.
Taking into account weaker statistics, PMI services index may also be less than anticipated.
Technically, the correction is possible towards coincident trend lines on intraday and 4H time frames. Overcoming of 1.2572 will give a way towards 1.2619.



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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-28

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Gold tested yesterday the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel, but traders took some profits due to bad news at the end of the week with the related speech of the President of the Federal Reserve. After that it declined yesterday and approached the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1,649 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will release a large potential and will enable to reach the lower limit of its channel at 1,580.
Technical indicators provide sell signal and evolve in overbuy zone supporting the hypothesis of a decline. Until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
As gold tests its intermediate support, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we suggest a buy on the level of 1,649 with the 1st objective at 1,660 and then at 1,665. A breakthrough of 1,646 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” which means selling of the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1,649 with the 1st objective at 1,638 and then at 1,635. A breakthrough of 1,652 will invalidate this scenario.
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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-24

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Gold broke the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel leading to acceleration to the upper limit of its channel at 1,674 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will allow it to release a large potential and initiate a more violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signals and evolve in overbuy zone supporting the hypothesis of a decline. Until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
As gold tests the upper limit of its channel, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell at the level of 1,674 with the 1st objective at 1,665 and then at 1,660. A breakthrough of 1,677 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop”. We recommend to buy the gold as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,674 with the 1st objective at 1,685 and then at 1,688. A breakthrough of 1,671 will invalidate this scenario.
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GBP/USD Strong Support 1.5784 - For August 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The British pound had a bullish session yesterday, exceeding strong resistance of 1.5766 and hitting above the 200 day moving average (blue). This indicates a good bullish momentum within the pair, we note that the pair is losing strength and is possible that downward correction there expects the former resistance, but now serves as support at the level of 1.5784 ( fractal daily), increasing the likelihood of a strong support.
Therefore, we recommend buying 1.5784 with targets at 1.5950. Fractal next day.



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EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-22

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As we expected yesterday, the spot rate broke the upper limit of its short term bearish channel at 98.40 and reached the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 99.20 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will release good potential and will initiate a more violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signal and approach overbuy zone supporting a decline. Until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Furthermore, the upper band strengthens the upper limit of its channel supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure
As the spot rate tests its resistance, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell on the level of 99.20 with the 1st objective at 98.60 and then at 98.40. A breakthrough 99.40 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop”. We recommend to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 99.20 with the 1st objective at 99.80 and then at 100.00. A breakthrough 98.90 will invalidate this scenario.
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AUD/CAD Wave Analysis for August 21,2012

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AUD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last few weeks the AUD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move, developing corrective (A) wave (coloured green) of the bigger (2) wave (coloured orange). Last Friday the AUD/USD pair finished (A) wave, and we could observe the price higher this week when developing the (B) wave starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave B retraces 61.8% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0593-1.0292), with Take Profit 1 at 1.0445(50% of wave A), and Take Profit 2 at 1.0481 (61.8% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use the end of the A wave at 1.0292 level as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0271 (S2) 1.0290 (S1) 1.0301 (PP) 1.0319 (R1) 1.0338 (R2) 1.0349 (R3) 1.0367
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0370 with Stop Loss 1.0292, Take Profit 1 1.0445 and Take Profit 2 1.0481 are recommended.
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GBP/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for August 20 - 24, 2012

Weekly Technical Levels:

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Tip (s):

•R3 and S3 are regarded as clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through.
•Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines.
•Within a strong trend the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and will continue the movement.
•In case of the breaking news release which may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Observation (s):

• If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
• Fibonacci retracement uses to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance, and playing according to in this kind of period.
• Fibonacci in a range trader (it is looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period you'll go sure for losing your profit.
• Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
• Usually the market has a high volatile, if the last day had a huge volatility.

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.
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GBP/JPY Wave Analysis for August 16,2012

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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave
For the last few days the GBP/JPY pair was trading in an upward move, developing impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe an ascending movement towards the 124.93 level where this exotic currency found resistance. Therefore, during the early New York session the GBP/JPY pair did not manage to hold this level and the price slipped towards the 123.30 level (new daily low). At the moment the price is trading around 124.20 level and we are expecting to see it around 125.20 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (121.07-123.25-131.78) with Take Profit at 125.22 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support point at 123.60 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the GBP Retail Sales m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 122.97 (S2) 123.26 (S1) 123.43 (PP) 123.71 (R1) 124.00 (R2) 124.17 (R3) 124.45
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 124.40 with Stop Loss 123.60 and Take Profit 125.22 are recommended.
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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 15,2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move, developing corrective wave (2) (coloured purple) of the bigger 3 (coloured blue). During the Asian and early European sessions we could observe a strong ascending movement towards the 1.2385 level and we can consider this move as the end of the (1) wave (coloured purple). Therefore, during the second half of the EU session the EUR/USD did not manage to hold this level and the price slipped towards the 1.2316 level. At the moment we can observe the price trading in a sideways move and we are expecting to see it higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2240-1.2385-1.2316) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2460 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2550 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.2240 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m and Crude Oil Inventories data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2272 (S2) 1.2298 (S1) 1.2315 (PP) 1.2341 (R1) 1.2367 (R2) 1.2384 (R3) 1.2410
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2345 with Stop Loss 1.2240, Take Profit 1 1.2460, and Take Profit 2 1.2550 are recommended.
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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-14

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Gold is actually testing the upper limit of its medium term triangle at 1,625 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels would free a large potential and initiate a violent bullish trend. In case of failure we will be able to delay the width of the base of the triangle at the breaking point to define the theoretical objective.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the resistance is not broken, the hypothesis of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility. Moreover, the superior band strengthens the upper limit of its channel suggesting a more violent movement in case of break.
We recommend to buy the gold as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,625 with the 1st objective at 1,636 and then at 1,640. A breakthrough 1,622 will invalidate this scenario.
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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 9, 2012

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The main tendency for the GBP/USD pair was bullish this week. As we see, the pair has been moving within three bullish channels which are depicted on the chart. However, the pair is showing some bullish weakness which is manifested in the recent overlapping swings that are taking place within the current Yellow channel.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair met the intraday Resistance Level of 1.5665 which expressed a significant bearish price action till now pushing the pair to the downside to test the lower limit of the Violet channel around price level of 1.5645. If this is broken, the pair will be able to resume its bearish movement towards 1.5600, 1.5545 then 1.5505.
The upper limit of the Yellow channel around 1.5690-1.5700 is considered as a strong intraday Resistance Level and a valid SELL entry with SL located above 1.5735.
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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-08

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Gold is approaching to the upper limit of its medium term triangle at 1,626 and seems to initiate decline. However, a break through this level will make it possible to get over the basis height of the triangle on its output.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Moreover, the superior band strengthens the upper limit of the triangle.
According to previous events, the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as gold breaks through its resistance of 1,626 with the 1st objective at 1,636 and then at 1,640. A breakthrough 1,623 will invalidate this scenario.
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EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis for August 7 - 2012

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Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
S1: 96.70 R1: 97.26
S2: 96.36 R2: 97.80
S3: 96.01 R3: 98.16


Technical Overview:
We saw a perfect test of the 96.70 support yesterday, but we need a break above minor resistance at 97.26 to confirm that red wave ii is over and red wave iii has begun. The first target for red wave iii is at 100.30, but if it extends further, we should see a rally towards 101.52.
However, as long as minor resistance at 97.26 has not been broken, there is a possibility for a deeper correction in red wave ii towards 96.36 and even deeper to 96.01, which we must respect as just a normal correction of red wave i if seen.
Trading Recommendation:
You should be long EUR against JPY at 95.85 or from yesterday’s low at 96.70 with stop at 94.95. Lift this stop to 95.85 upon a break above 97.80. If you are not long EUR already, then buy a break above 97.26 with the same stop.

EUR/USD - Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points and signals- For 06 - 10 August , 2012

The Pivot Point (PPV) is used as support and resistance at the same time; it is the first level that we observe. For this week the pivot points (weekly and monthly) for EUR/USD are: 1.2307 weekly; 1.2342 monthly.
The euro is located above the weekly pivot point and bellow the Moving Average of 200 periods.
Accordingly, the pivot points signify the following.
A daily close above the pivot point of 1.2307 can increase the probability of a rise to 1.2578 weekly resistance (W_R2). On the other hand, a close below the weekly pivot point will initiate a decline which could continue until 1.2210 (W_S1); it is possible that at that level the pair may find a strong rebound, so we recommend buying on weekly support 1.2210 or above the weekly pivot point, (PV) with medium term targets until 1.2578(W_R2).

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.2752
Weekly - R2 = 1.2578
Weekly - R1 = 1.2481
Weekly Pivot = 1.2307
Weekly - S1 = 1.2210
Weekly - S2 = 1.2036
Weekly - S3 = 1.1939

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____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.3274
Monthly - R2 = 1.2977
Monthly - R1 = 1.2639
Monthly Pivot = 1.2342
Monthly - S1 = 1.2004
Monthly - S2 = 1.1707
Monthly - S3 = 1.1369


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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 2 - 2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move developing final C wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (2) (coloured green). During the Asian and European sessions this major pair was trading in a sideways move between 1.2285 and 1.2335 levels. Therefore, during the New York session the EUR/USD did not manage to hold this level and we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.2215 level. We can consider this move as the end of the corrective wave (2) (coloured green). At the moment we can observe the beginning of the impulsive wave (3) and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2365 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2041-1.2390-1.2215) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2565(100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2778 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk we can use Invalidation point at 1.2041 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference and U.S. Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders m/m, Natural Gas Storage data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2143 (S2) 1.2188 (S1) 1.2216 (PP) 1.2261 (R1) 1.2306 (R2) 1.2334 (R3) 1.2379
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2300 with Stop Loss 1.2040, Take Profit 1 1.2565 and Take Profit 2 at 1.2778 are recommended.

Silver Technical Levels and Trading Recommendatios for Aug 1 , 2012

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Overview


The H4 chart demonstrates today that silver takes a downward move after its rebound from the upper limit of the bullish channel and the Resistance level 28.40 and presently it is testing the Support level 27.85. If silver continues its bearish view and manages to break this Support level, it will provide a good opportunity to sell below the Support level as well as will make it possible to reach the Support level 27.50 as a level target. After that we should wait for breaking out of this Support level to continue the bearish move. In case silver is able to break the Support level 27.50 and close 4H below, we will get a bearish strength which will provide new sell signals and enable the Support level 27.20 as a level target.
On the other hand, if silver reverses its bearish move and takes an upward move after its rebound from the Support level 27.85, this will be a strong indicator for the bullish move after closing 4H above the Support level enabling the Resistance level 28.40 again. In this case, we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to continue the bullish view. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide sell signals, but as long as the Support level 27.85 is unbroken, the upward move is still expected and invalidating the downward movement. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and Support levels
R3(29.10)
R2(28.95)
R1(28.40)
S1(27.85)
S2(27.50)
S3(27.20)

Trading Recommendations
According to previous analysis, we recommend selling in case of closing 4H below the Support level 27.85 with TP1 27.40 and TP2 27.00; SL closing 4H above the Support level might be appropriate.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for Jully 31, 2012

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Today’s Technical Level:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2318.
Strong Resistance: 1.2311.
Original Resistance: 1.2300.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2288.
Target Inner Area: 1.2260.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2230.
Original Support: 1.2220.
Strong Support: 1.2208.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2201.
Description:
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2220 and 1.2300 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2208 and by 1.2311 as strong resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below a 1.2201 level today, this will indicate a considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above a 1.2318 level, this will denote a high bullish strength. Alternatively, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.2230, and SELL position at 1.2288; in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2260.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for July 27, 2012

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On May 15, the GBP/USD pair managed to break down the lower limit of the bullish BLUE channel depicted on the chart. Since then, the pair has been moving within the triangle pattern after having a quick bearish swing between 1.6300 and 1.5260.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair found significant support at the lower limit of the triangle pattern around 1.5460 which pushed the pair to the upside for about 260 pips in one day.
Price level 1.5460 not only corresponds to the lower limit of the triangle but also to the backside of the broken downtrend line depicted on the chart as well.
The GBP/USD pair has a strong long-term Resistance zone between 1.5773-1.5840 where daily price action should be watched for valid long-term positions to be taken.
The current price level of 1.5730 corresponding to the upper limit of the symmetrical triangle should constitute an intraday Resistance for the pair even on the short-term. However, breakthrough above it opens the way towards the stronger resistance zone 1.5773-1.5840.
For risky traders, an intraday SELL position can be taken at 1.5730 with SL as 4H closure above 1.5780 with TP at 1.5700, 1.5666 then 1.5630.

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-20

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 96.10 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 95.60.
Technical indicators provide buy-signals and until the support is not broken the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 96.10 with the 1st objective at 96.70 and then at 96.90. A break through 95.90 will alter this scenario.

AUD/USD Wave Analysis July 19, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
The AUD/USD pair was trading in a strong upward move for the last few weeks developing impulsive wave (3) (coloured green). Yesterday during the European session we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.0287 level where this currency pair found support and the price started pushing higher. Therefore, during the New York session we could see a strong ascending move that brought the AUD/USD pair to the new high around 1.0375 level. Today this currency pair continued trading in a bullish mood and we are expecting to see the price above 1.0500 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0100-1.0248-1.0204) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0445 (161.8% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0502(200% of wave 1). Support at 1.0330 point can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0256 (S2) 1.0289 (S1) 1.0309 (PP) 1.0341 (R1) 1.0374 (R2) 1.0394 (R3) 1.0426
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0390 with Stop Loss 1.0330 Take Profit 1 at 1.0445 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0502 are recommended.

EUR/USD Intraday Wave Analysis July 18, 2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday we performed a long term analysis for the EUR/USD pair and today we want to examine a smaller time frame for intraday traders. Yesterday during the European session we could observe an ascending movement towards the 1.2315 level and we can consider this move as the end of the C wave (coloured blue). Therefore, during the early New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and the price rapidly fell to the new daily low of 1.2188 (end of the D wave) where the EUR/USD pair found support and price reached 1.2300 level at the end of the NY session. At the moment we could observe the price trading around 1.2256 level and we are expecting to see it above 1.2350 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave E retraces minimum 100% of the wave C, we can define the potential targets by measuring C wave with Take Profit 1 at 1.2326 (100% of wave C) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2363 (127.2% of wave C). Support at 1.2210 point can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Building Permits, Housing Starts, Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, Crude Oil Inventories and Beige Book data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2138 (S2) 1.2187 (S1) 1.2217 (PP) 1.2266 (R1) 1.2315 (R2) 1.2345 (R3) 1.2394
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2250 with Stop Loss 1.2210, Take Profit 1 at 1.2326 and Take Profit 2 at 1.2363 are recommended.

GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5704 for July 17, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The British pound gain strength amid a downward correction, currently its short-term uptrend is not in danger. The weekly resistance level 1.5704, which is the key to the pair, has a clear path and can continue its way to the south. We believe that this will happen only when it has resolved the major part of the problems within the European Union. Taking into account that gloomy future, we recommend selling at the level of 1.5704 with targets at 1.5520.
On the other hand, a return to the weekly pivot line recommend buying at this level the pair, again sought to break the 1.57.
The trend indicator shows bullish strength.



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EUR/JPY Pullback Underway - Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations 2012-07-16

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
Looking at the wave structure above, we can see that the pullback of the wave 4 seems to be underway now. Minimum expectations are towards 98.00/98.50, which is also the convergence point of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and past support turned resistance. It is recommended to stay long with a strict stop, this pullback has just started.
Trading Recommendations:
1. Aggressive strategy: stay long from last Friday recommendations, Stop at 95.00, Target 98.50.
2. Conservative approach: wait to sell at 98.50 level for a down target below 93.00
Good Luck!

Gold Not Giving Up On Lat Weeks Support at 1548/49 Levels. 2012-07-13

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
The overall structure remains unchanged as discussed yesterday, while short term outlook may change. The last week intermediary support at 1548/49 levels, depicted as S1 above, is not giving in to the bears as yet. That leaves us with a possibility of a corrective rally that may exceed resistance at 1630.00 levels. Until and unless the support region of 1550/40 levels is not broken convincingly, don’t be surprised if bulls take charge above 1630.00 levels in the coming sessions.
Trading Recommendations:
1. Cover short positions if taken yesterday.
2. Aggressive strategy would be to buy with stop at 1545.00, target at 1660/70 levels.
3. Conservative strategy would be flat for now. Trade on a breakdown of 1540.oo levels.

Eur/Jpy Bears Targetting at 93.50/94.00 Region - Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations 2012-07-12

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
As depicted above, the pullback towards the 101.50 level last month can be considered as Wave 4. Wave 5 is under way now and the bears should be targetting at the 93.50/94.00 levels as downside minimum projections. Near term support is cast by the 96.00 levels while immediate resistance comes in at the 98.50/60 levels. We expect a pullbacks to be well capped below this resistance level now.

Trading Recommendations:
Sell intraday rallies towards 98.00/ 98.50 levels, Stop at the 101.30 level, Target - 93.50

EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for July 10 - 2012

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Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

Support Resistance
1: 97.39 1: 98.19
2: 97.02 2: 98.69
3: 95.65 3: 99.09

Technical Overview:
The ongoing blue wave iv has for now remained below the resistance at 98.30. It is a little to early to say that blue wave iv is done with, but we should expect this blue wave iv being a shallow correction and should take the shape of a flat correction or a triangle, the reason for this is, that blue wave ii corrected 61.8% of blue wave i and Elliott Alternations principle tells us, that a sharp simple correction as wave ii should be followed by a shallow but more complex correction in wave iv. Once blue wave iv is over we should see a decline towards the ideal target near 94.58 in blue wave v.

Trading Recommendation:
You should be short from 99.55 with stop at break-even and take profit at 95.85. If you are not short already you should short a test into the 98.23 - 98.30 area with the same stop and take profit levels.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-09

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Gold is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 1,576 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 1,540.
Technical indicators provide buy-signals and approaching oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1,576 with the 1st objective at 1,590 and then at 1,590. A break through 1,573 will alter this scenario.

AUD/USD Possibly lower within new correction - Analysis for July 6, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in an upward move developing final 5 wave of the bigger wave 1 (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe an ascending movement toward the 1.0328 level. We can consider this move as the end of the impulsive wave 1 (coloured blue). Therefore, during the New York session this currency pair started pushing lower and price reached 1.0250 level. Today the AUD/USD pair continued trading in a bearish mood and price is currently testing 100 EMA support level. At the moment we can observe the beginning of wave 2 and we are expecting to see price under 1.0250 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 retraces 61.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci Retracements (0.9968-1.0328) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0148 (50% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0106(61.8% of wave 1). Resistance point at 1.0330 can be used as a Stop Loss point.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0199 (S2) 1.0232 (S1) 1.0252 (PP) 1.0286 (R1) 1.0319 (R2) 1.0339 (R3) 1.0373
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0240 with Stop Loss at 1.0330 Take Profit 1 at 1.0148 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0106 are recommended.

AUD/USD Above 1.0350 Today - Analysis for July 4, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in a slight upward move, developing final wave 5 of the bigger wave 1 (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe descending movement toward the 1.0245 level. Therefore, during the New York session the AUD/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and we could observe upward move that brings this pair to the new daily high 1.0295. Today during the Asian session we could observe continuation of the bullish mood and today we are expecting to see the end of the 5 impulsive wave (coloured pink). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets measuring 1 wave with Take Profit at 1.0369 (100% of wave 1). Support at 1.0245 can be used as a Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to know that U.S. banks have holidays so we can’t expect to see much volatility today in NY session.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0174 (S2) 1.0205 (S1) 1.0241 (PP) 1.0269 (R1) 1.0308 (R2) 1.0336 (R3) 1.0375
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0300 with Stop Loss at 1.0245 and Take Profit at 1.0369 are recommended.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-03

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Gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel at 1,610 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and reach the upper limit of this one to 1,644.
Technical indicators provide buy-signals but approaching to overbuy zone supporting the assumption of a decline. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold has broken through its resistance of 1,610 with the 1st objective at 1,620 and then at 1,625. A break through 1,607 will invalidate this scenario.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-02

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Gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel at 1,615 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and reach the upper limit of this one to 1,644.
Technical indicators provide sell-signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold has broken through its resistance of 1,615 with the 1st objective at 1,625 and then at 1,630. A break through 1,612 will invalidate this scenario.

USD/CAD Pushing Lower Today - Analysis for June 29, 2012

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
The USD/CAD pair was trading in an upward move on Thursday developing impulsive wave 1 (colored blue). During both the Asian and the European sessions we could observe strong ascending movement in this major pair that brings price to the new 3 weeks high at 1.0037 level. Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached 1.0361 level. We can consider this level as end of the 1 wave (coloured blue). At the moment we can observe the start of the 2 wave (coloured blue) and we are expecting to see price around 1.0280 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 retraces minimum 50% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0231-1.0361) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0296 (50% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0281 (61.8% of wave 1). Yesterday’s high at 1.0361 can be used as a Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the CAD GDP m/m, RMPI m/m, IPPI m/m and U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0178 (S2) 1.0228 (S1) 1.0258 (PP) 1.0308 (R1) 1.0358 (R2) 1.0388 (R3) 1.0438
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0325 with Stop Loss at 1.0361 Take Profit 1 at 1.0296 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0281 are recommended.

USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for June 28, 2012

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In order to confirm the expected Head & Shoulders reversal pattern, the USD/CAD pair needed to breakdown the neck-line around 1.0240 to open the way towards its bearish target at 1.0160. However, the pair failed to do so today. Instead, it showed significant bullish price action towards 1.0240 which pushed the pair towards the upper limit of the Yellow channel and the backside of the broken violet channel around 1.0275.
Price Level 1.0240 constitutes an important Intraday Support Level for USD/CAD corresponding to the neck-line of the H&S pattern and the mid-line of the Blue & Yellow bearish channels.
Price Level 1.0275 constitutes an important Resistance Level for the pair corresponding to the upper limit of the Yellow channel where price action of the pair should be watched for a possible low-risk SELL entry. However, breakthrough of 1.0275 probably leads to a quick bullish movement towards 1.0305 initially.
Breakdown of 1.0240 confirms the H&S pattern opening the way for the pair towards 1.0160. However, failure of the pair to do so invalidates the bearish scenario and the H&S pattern.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-27

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5650 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 1.5700.
Technical indicators provide sell-signals and until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5650 with the 1st objective at 1.5700 and then at 1.5720. A break through 1.5630will invalidate this scenario.

InstaForex

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-26

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5600 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 1.5700.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5600 with the 1st objective at 1.5660 and then at 1.5680. A break through 1.5580 will invalidate this scenario.

InstaForex

USD/CAD pushing higher - Analysis for June 25, 2012

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
During the Friday's trading session the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move developing corrective 4 wave (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe ascending movement toward the 1.0299 level. We can consider this move as the end of the 3 wave (coloured blue). Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair started pushing lower and price reached a new daily low at 1.0240 level (end of the corrective 4 wave). Today during the Asian session this major pair has started pushing higher and the price is currently around the 1.0270 level.
Presently we can see the developing of the final 5 wave of the bigger wave (1) (coloured green) and we are waiting for the price to move higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring (1) wave (coloured green) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0305 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0346 (161.8% of wave 1). Resistance at 1.0230 can be used as a Stop Loss point.
Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. New Home Sales data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0202 (S2) 1.0224(S1) 1.0238 (PP) 1.0260(R1) 1.0282 (R2) 1.0296(R3) 1.0318
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0285 with Stop Loss at 1.0230 Take Profit 1 at 1.0305 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0346 are recommended.

GBP/USD: Sideways Trend for June 22, 2012

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.5632.

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Sideways Trend: Prices are moving within a narrow range between 1.5600 and 1.5850.

GBP/USD:

• Resistance: 1.5906. (Sell below this level).
• Support: 1.5600. (Buy above this level).
  

Trading Recommendations:

According to the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.5600 and 1.5850.

• The descending movement will probably take place lower than the 1.5906 level with the first targets at levels 1.5783 and 1.565.
• BUY deals are recommended higher than the 1.5600 level with targets at levels 1.5710 and 1.5850.

Overview:

It should be noted that the market revealed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. In the light of the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.5600 and 1.5850, so it is recommended to be cautious while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then, the market will probably indicate the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, BUY deals are recommended higher than the 1.5600 level with its first target at the level of 1.5710. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point 1.5850 and further to the level 1.59. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.5906, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level 1.5906. In this regard, SELL deals are recommended lower than the 1.5906 level with the first target at 1.5780. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.5670 then 1.5632 (The weekly pivot point).

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-21

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 100.60 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 99.40.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but are approaching overbuy zone supporting a break of its support. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 100.60 with the 1st objective at 101.20 and then at 101.40. A break through 100.40 will alter this scenario.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for June 14, 2012

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The 4H chart reveals significant resistance level located around 1.5635 corresponding to the lower limit of a previous congestion zone which hasn't been tested yet.
The GBP/USD demonstrated significant bearish reaction manifested in the bearish engulfing 4H candlesticks which predicted a possible breakdown of the Violet channel that took place today in order to resume the downtrend initiated long time ago.
Termination of the current bullish move initiated last week becomes confirmed on breakdown of Support Level 1.5450.


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The 1H chart depicts a strong bullish reaction towards Price Level 1.5460 which corresponds to the lower limit of the Blue and Yellow channels. However, the pair expressed significant bearish reaction Yesterday at testing of price level 1.5600.
Breakdown the mid-line of the Yellow channel at 1.5555 opened the way towards the lower limit of the same channel around price zone 1.5470-1.5480 which is being tested now.
The lower limit of the Yellow channel at 1.5470-1.5480 constitutes a Strong Support Zone and a possible quick Intraday BUY entry with TP at 1.5550.
The GBP/USD has a strong Intraday Resistance Level at 1.5555 corresponding to the mid-line of the Yellow channel which constitutes a valid Intraday SELL entry with SL located above 1.5600.
TP levels are to be located at 1.5510, 1.5470 and 1.5410.

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for June 13, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in an upward movement developing impulsive 3 wave. During the European session we could observe ascending movement toward the 0.9930 level. Therefore during the New York session AUD/USD continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached a new daily high at the 0.9966 level. Today during the Asian session the AUD/USD pair found support at 0.9930 and price continued pushing higher. At the moment we are in the middle of the impulsive 3 wave (coloured pink) and we expect to see the price higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets Fibonacci extensions (0.9820-1.0008-0.9850) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0087 (127.2% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0152 (161.8% of wave 1). Support level at 0.9930 can be used as a Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core PPI m/m, Business Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories and 10-y Bond Auction data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 0.9808 (S2) 0.9852 (S1) 0.9880 (PP) 0.9925 (R1) 0.9969 (R2) 0.9997 (R3) 1.0042
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0000 with Stop Loss at 0.9930 Take Profit 1 at 1.0087 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0152 are recommended.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-06-12

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The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5540 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and initiate a violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators provide buy-signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most probable. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened these days pointing at decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events the market will offer a bullish prospect as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5540 with the 1st objective at 1.5600 and then at 1.5620. A break through 1.5520 will invalidate this scenario.