AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 30, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

AUD/USD is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0401. Within this wave there are also two subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 0.9621. However this subwave may be potentially over at 0.9985.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements 1.0401-0.9621, and expansions off 0.9621-0.9985-0.9701.
Resistances:
- 0.9926 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0011 = .50 retracement
- 1.0065 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0103 = .618 ret
If the price keeps moving down the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0768-1.0181-1.0401, 1.0401-0.9621-0.9985, 0.9985-0.9701-0.9878.
Supports:
- 0.9702 = COP
- 0.9594 = OP
- 0.9503 = COP
- 0.9418 = expanded objective point (XOP)


Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (30-50 pips above the current prices).
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/40110/?x=OUE