USD/CAD Technical Analysis for 9 September 2011

Vladimir Donin

Technical analysis


Support levels: 0.9742, 0.9635, 0.9568
Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0050, 1.0209

In a 4-hour chart USD/CAD pulls back after a sharp increase. Previously, USD/CAD tested a support level at 0.9742 without success which probably forwarded the currency pair to a parity level. In case it breaks the parity level, the trend turns bullish.
As written before, a fresh upward movement is confirmed by a breakthrough of the downward channel’s upper level and a previously developed MACD /RSI divergence. Moreover, a breakthrough of resistance level at 0.9780-0.9800 signified a new mid-term bottom at 0.9406 and opened the way to 1.0000. In case the price breaks a 1.0000 level, the next upward target will be at 1.0209.
However, short-term signals indicate a downward. In particular, MACD reveals a downfall to its key level, while RSI falls from an overbought level at 70.0. In case the downward movement continues, a breakthrough of a major support level at 0.9400 will forward the price to fresh multi-year minimums. A downward movement to 0.9172, which is a 61.8 Fibonacci Projection level from 1.0670 to 0.9445, can also be expected.
In mid-term trend, a breakthrough of a support level at 0.9930 indicated further mid-term movement from 1.3063 (maximum of 2009) to a 0.9400 target level. However, the downward movement is likely to be a correction and has a strong support level at 0.9056–0.9700.
In case of a pullback, a breakthrough of a 1.0851 level will confirm a breakthrough of the downward trend from 1.3063. In this case USD/CAD is expected to move upward to a resistance level at 1.1126 with a further target at 1.1866.

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