AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 16, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with potential subwave C still developing from 1.0343. Within the latter wave C there are also waves A, B and C (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0199. The tragets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0051-1.0343, 1.0343-1.0112-1.0199.
Supports:
- 1.0056 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9968 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9910-08 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 ret
- 0.9825 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-1.0051.
Resistances:
- 1.0402 = .50 ret
- 1.0484 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (25-35 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (70-90 pips above the current prices).
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/43896/?x=OUE

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